Trump Supporters Are the Ones Living in a Bubble in Michigan

After Donald Trump’s surprise victory last year, it became almost gospel with beltway pundits that liberals were living in a bubble. That’s been followed by a never-ending stream of profiles of Trump supporters (aka Real Americans) who — wouldn’t ya know it? — vowed to stick with him no matter what.

Now given the fact that Trump’s win shocked most observers, myself included, it makes sense for analysts to look at what they got wrong and who they ignored. But often times, the course correction is riddled with false or overstated assumptions.

By any standard, Trump’s victory was not a landslide. He lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by almost 3 million — which means the majority of the country wasn’t overcome with #MAGA fever. Trump won the Electoral College by flipping three states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — by 80,000 votes, which is roughly the population of Farmington Hills. It’s an impressive strategic win, but a mandate it is not.

For some perspective, consider the fact that Barack Obama’s 2008 win isn’t considered a landslide, even though he won by 7 percentage points, almost 10 million votes and 192 votes in the Electoral College. The Democrats won big majorities in both houses of Congress, achieving a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate.

In 2016, Republicans lost seats in both chambers of Congress in 2016. Democrats picked up six seats in the U.S. House and two seats in the U.S. Senate. That wasn’t enough to gain a majority in either house and fell far short of expectations. But it certainly doesn’t indicate a Trumpian wave crashing over the entire country.

Of course, just pointing out basic facts like this nowadays is enough to get some Trump supporters to shout, “Fake news!” Talk about living in a bubble.

They’ll probably want to close their eyes to new polling from NBC/Marist in the three key Trump states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Michigan poll of 795 votes was conducted Aug. 13 to 17 and had a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Here in the Mitten State, 36 percent of voters approved of the president’s job performance, with just 19 percent strongly approving. Meanwhile, 55 percent disapproved, with 40 percent saying they strongly do.

And 64 percent said that Trump’s conduct embarrassed them. Six in 10 voters said the United States’ role on the world stage has been weakened under Trump.

The best numbers for the president were on the question of whether the U.S. economy has been strengthened by his decisions. Voters by a 42 percent-to-39 percent margin gave him props, within the poll’s margin of error.

The Wisconsin and Pennsylvania numbers are very similar — Trump had a 35/54 job approval in Pennsylvania and was at 34/56 in Wisconsin.

Given the fact that Trump’s numbers are so dismal in the three states that propelled him to victory just nine months ago, it would seem that his vastly outnumbered supporters are the ones living in a bubble. Might be something to mention in any future pseudo-sociological studies of Trump voters.

Republicans Launch the ‘Fredo Defense’ of Trump

"The president’s new at this. He’s new to government, and so he probably wasn’t steeped in the long-running protocols that establish the relationships between DOJ, FBI and White Houses. He’s just new to this.” — U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (D-Wisc.), at a Thursday press conference held during former FBI Director James Comey's Capitol Hill testimony

For years, we've been accustomed to Republicans chest-beating about their strength. The perception of this has been one of the party's greatest assets, as many of their policy proposals, like cutting taxes for the rich and ripping health care away from 23 million Americans, poll terribly.

There was Ronald Reagan telling Mikhail Gorbachev to "tear down that wall" and end communism in the late 1980s. There was George W. Bush strutting across an aircraft carrier to (prematurely) celebrate victory in the Iraq war in 2003. There was John McCain declaring he'd put the "Country First" during the '08 election, which everyone believed because he'd survived the Hanoi Hilton.

In 2016, Donald Trump campaigned as the ultimate alpha male. "I alone can fix it," he promised with his trademark braggadocio, while disparaging his rivals for failing to compete with his virility (remember his digs at "Little Marco" Rubio and calling Jeb Bush "low energy"?) During a March 2016 campaign rally, Trump made a big point of stressing he was 6'3'', not 6'2." And at the GOP debate in Detroit, Trump bragged about the size of his hands in such an awkward soliloquy that CNN cast subtlety aside and ran this headline: "Donald Trump defends size of his penis."

Now the president finds himself engulfed in a growing scandal over his campaign's ties to Russia, which is the subject of an ongoing FBI investigation, and a possible coverup. He admitted in a TV interview that the "Russia thing" was on his mind as he decided to fire FBI Director James Comey.

Comey was on Capitol Hill Thursday to testify and it was riveting. The former director said that Trump told “lies, plain and simple,” about he and the FBI as part of a coverup for his firing. He revealed the president had said he "hoped" he would drop his investigation, which Comey "took as direction." Comey also said there was "no doubt" that the Russians were behind the Democratic National Committee hacking last year, which sowed party divisions between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton supporters that Republicans exploited.

So it's somewhat breathtaking that as the walls close in on Trump and his allies, Republicans are launching a "Fredo defense." Like the slow brother in "The Godfather," the president just doesn't really know what he's doing (although, fittingly, Fredo insisted until the day he was whacked that he was really the smart one).

This is not an exaggeration, as you can see by the quote from U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) above. He's really arguing that Trump is "new at this" and therefore what he did was OK. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a former proud Never Trumper, tried out a version of the Fredo defense before the hearing: “I don't think [Trump] colluded with the Russians because he doesn't collude with his own staff." Look for this to become a popular talking point from the same folks that excoriated former President Barack Obama as "Obambi."

In case you're looking for a laugh through your tears, Democratic activist Kaivan Shroff sums the whole thing up nicely.

What people mean by "white male privilege" is a billionaire who claims he is a genius and should run country, then cries "I'm new at this."

— Kaivan Shroff (@KaivanShroff) June 9, 2017

Surprise! Rick Snyder makes nice with Donald Trump

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column entreating Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder to stand up to Donald Trump, given his status as a businessman-turned-Rust Belt governor who preaches the virtues of civility.

While Democrats and liberal activists can be expected to do the heavy lifting when it comes to opposing the authoritarian elements of Trump's presidency, it's vital to have as many conservative and Republican voices as possible join in. For starters, this supersedes ideology. And historically, bipartisan movements are taken more seriously by the public and the media.

Here's part of my argument:

You may not have liked what President Hillary Clinton may have wrought in terms of taxes and regulation, but I believe you stay up at night wondering what President Trump will do with the nuclear codes.

Warning signs abound. The president-elect’s chief White House adviser is Steve Bannon, who runs the white nationalist website, Breitbart.com (which is primed to become some sort of state-run media a la Pravda). Trump refuses to set up a blind trust for his far-reaching business interests, instead saying he’ll turn them over to his children (who may have access to state secrets). And he’s playing footsie with Vladimir Putin on the national stage already.

None of these are partisan issues. These are all red flags about how our republic will function.

I got some pushback from readers for my alleged naiveté, mostly coming from those unfamiliar with my frequent criticism of Snyder over the Flint water crisis, Right to Work, child poverty, LGBT rights and much more. And no, I didn't believe my column would have any impact, as I indicated in the column itself:

Of course, I’m not the right person to ask this of you. It should be the Detroit News’ Nolan Finley or better yet, a Republican colleague. I’ve been one of your fiercest critics over Right to Work and the Flint Water crisis. I’m probably about as popular in your inner circle as I was with that of your predecessor, Jennifer Granholm.

And even if you were to vocally oppose Trump, I wouldn’t stop holding your feet to the fire over your policies in Michigan. Neither will my colleagues. It doesn’t work that way. So this is all probably sounding like a terrific proposition for you.

I doubt the governor reads me or cares what I think. But it was worth a shot. And sometimes it's important to put things on the record.

So last week, Snyder did exactly what you'd expect, declaring that he looks "forward to building a relationship" with Trump. That's quite the change from his October take, when he called Trump's "grab 'em by the pussy" remarks "revolting and disgusting." Time heals all wounds, I guess. 

The governor even went so far as to defend Trump in a tweet Monday against the Green Party's attempt to get a recount in Michigan. 

So Rick Snyder is who he's always been: A Republican who feigns moderation, but has repeatedly proven to be unwilling or unable to stand up to the extremist elements of his party.

I'm not surprised. I just remain very, very disappointed. 

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: So What Do We Do Now?

Susan J. Demas, 2016

I am not the optimist in my family. That role is filled by my husband, Joe. All of us are devastated right now, but his mantra has always been, "Time to get back to work." We're both doing this, though without many smiles. When he starts singing Christmas carols around the house, I know it will be OK.

We've been hugging our kids a lot. Our 13-year-old said yesterday morning, "I've lost all faith in humanity. Are women going to lose their rights?" He then tried to comfort Joe and cracked jokes. Our 14-year-old is busy organizing against harassment of LGBT and minority students at her school. They are good eggs. They fight for others while we fight for their future. 

I am not a maudlin hippie. But here is how I truly feel right now. Be kind to one another. Try to bring some light into the world. Stop punching down. Stop trying to prove you're the smartest person in the room. And definitely stop tearing each other down to fight through your own pain. I have been guilty of all of these things too many times.

It accomplishes nothing right now. It's self-defeating. It emboldens those who seek to do us harm. We all just need to take a breath and feel. And if anyone wants to mock me for saying this, so be it. I'll have been called worse.

This is the fight of our lives. As conservative David Frum said, democracy itself is likely on the line. Take care of yourself. Take care of your family. Take care of one another.

Susan J. Demas: Marco Rubio is the perfect candidate for Millennials –– not Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders may have captured millennials' hearts, but Marco Rubio should really be their guy.

It's not because the 44-year-old Republican is obviously closer to that generation than Sanders, who will turn 75 before Election Day.

No, it's because Rubio embodies the ethos of Millennials, which the Washington Post snidely dubbed the "Participation Trophy Generation." Hey, it's an unflattering stereotype, but trend-story hazing is a rite of passage for each generation coming of age.

As a Generation Xer, I recall being told how lazy and entitled we all were, as well. And some of us were, just like snot-nosed twentysomethings who act like they're ready to run the company on their first day just because they know what Snapchat is. (Hey, I'm 90 percent sure that I do, although I've clearly never used it).

But Rubio is the ultimate "Participation Trophy" candidate of 2016. He's gone an embarrassing 0 for 4 in the first nominating contests. And yet he still parades around like he's the frontrunner, enabled by the desperate GOP establishment that's determined Rubio is their last, best (and dreamiest) hope against Donald Trump.

When Rubio finished third in Iowa, he had the chutzpah to give a victory speech. It wasn't a bad strategic move, and plenty of pundits ate it up. Politics is often about faking it till you make it, and the freshman senator has that motto down cold.

But then Rubio went on to take fifth in New Hampshire. He failed to capture a single delegate in South Carolina and still gave another "victory" speech. Donald Trump then crushed him 2-1 in Nevada.

And yet Rubio backers are out there goading other candidates to drop out, like Ted Cruz, who actually won something (Iowa) and John Kasich, who pulled out a surprise second-place finish in New Hampshire and could do well in the Midwest primaries ahead. New polling shows Rubio is even losing to Trump in his home state of Florida. 

Rubio has the swagger of a candidate who's never lost anything, because he hasn't until now. When Republican powerbrokers have been pumping you up as the fresh face of the party –– the only one who can defeat the Democrats –– it goes to your head.

People are always quick to blame parents for raising selfish millennials who crack under pressure. Maybe the Republican establishment deserves some for emboldening a green freshman senator. Because Marco Rubio obviously doesn't seem ready to be commander-in chief.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.