Trump Supporters Are the Ones Living in a Bubble in Michigan

After Donald Trump’s surprise victory last year, it became almost gospel with beltway pundits that liberals were living in a bubble. That’s been followed by a never-ending stream of profiles of Trump supporters (aka Real Americans) who — wouldn’t ya know it? — vowed to stick with him no matter what.

Now given the fact that Trump’s win shocked most observers, myself included, it makes sense for analysts to look at what they got wrong and who they ignored. But often times, the course correction is riddled with false or overstated assumptions.

By any standard, Trump’s victory was not a landslide. He lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by almost 3 million — which means the majority of the country wasn’t overcome with #MAGA fever. Trump won the Electoral College by flipping three states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — by 80,000 votes, which is roughly the population of Farmington Hills. It’s an impressive strategic win, but a mandate it is not.

For some perspective, consider the fact that Barack Obama’s 2008 win isn’t considered a landslide, even though he won by 7 percentage points, almost 10 million votes and 192 votes in the Electoral College. The Democrats won big majorities in both houses of Congress, achieving a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate.

In 2016, Republicans lost seats in both chambers of Congress in 2016. Democrats picked up six seats in the U.S. House and two seats in the U.S. Senate. That wasn’t enough to gain a majority in either house and fell far short of expectations. But it certainly doesn’t indicate a Trumpian wave crashing over the entire country.

Of course, just pointing out basic facts like this nowadays is enough to get some Trump supporters to shout, “Fake news!” Talk about living in a bubble.

They’ll probably want to close their eyes to new polling from NBC/Marist in the three key Trump states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Michigan poll of 795 votes was conducted Aug. 13 to 17 and had a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Here in the Mitten State, 36 percent of voters approved of the president’s job performance, with just 19 percent strongly approving. Meanwhile, 55 percent disapproved, with 40 percent saying they strongly do.

And 64 percent said that Trump’s conduct embarrassed them. Six in 10 voters said the United States’ role on the world stage has been weakened under Trump.

The best numbers for the president were on the question of whether the U.S. economy has been strengthened by his decisions. Voters by a 42 percent-to-39 percent margin gave him props, within the poll’s margin of error.

The Wisconsin and Pennsylvania numbers are very similar — Trump had a 35/54 job approval in Pennsylvania and was at 34/56 in Wisconsin.

Given the fact that Trump’s numbers are so dismal in the three states that propelled him to victory just nine months ago, it would seem that his vastly outnumbered supporters are the ones living in a bubble. Might be something to mention in any future pseudo-sociological studies of Trump voters.

Surprise! Rick Snyder makes nice with Donald Trump

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column entreating Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder to stand up to Donald Trump, given his status as a businessman-turned-Rust Belt governor who preaches the virtues of civility.

While Democrats and liberal activists can be expected to do the heavy lifting when it comes to opposing the authoritarian elements of Trump's presidency, it's vital to have as many conservative and Republican voices as possible join in. For starters, this supersedes ideology. And historically, bipartisan movements are taken more seriously by the public and the media.

Here's part of my argument:

You may not have liked what President Hillary Clinton may have wrought in terms of taxes and regulation, but I believe you stay up at night wondering what President Trump will do with the nuclear codes.

Warning signs abound. The president-elect’s chief White House adviser is Steve Bannon, who runs the white nationalist website, Breitbart.com (which is primed to become some sort of state-run media a la Pravda). Trump refuses to set up a blind trust for his far-reaching business interests, instead saying he’ll turn them over to his children (who may have access to state secrets). And he’s playing footsie with Vladimir Putin on the national stage already.

None of these are partisan issues. These are all red flags about how our republic will function.

I got some pushback from readers for my alleged naiveté, mostly coming from those unfamiliar with my frequent criticism of Snyder over the Flint water crisis, Right to Work, child poverty, LGBT rights and much more. And no, I didn't believe my column would have any impact, as I indicated in the column itself:

Of course, I’m not the right person to ask this of you. It should be the Detroit News’ Nolan Finley or better yet, a Republican colleague. I’ve been one of your fiercest critics over Right to Work and the Flint Water crisis. I’m probably about as popular in your inner circle as I was with that of your predecessor, Jennifer Granholm.

And even if you were to vocally oppose Trump, I wouldn’t stop holding your feet to the fire over your policies in Michigan. Neither will my colleagues. It doesn’t work that way. So this is all probably sounding like a terrific proposition for you.

I doubt the governor reads me or cares what I think. But it was worth a shot. And sometimes it's important to put things on the record.

So last week, Snyder did exactly what you'd expect, declaring that he looks "forward to building a relationship" with Trump. That's quite the change from his October take, when he called Trump's "grab 'em by the pussy" remarks "revolting and disgusting." Time heals all wounds, I guess. 

The governor even went so far as to defend Trump in a tweet Monday against the Green Party's attempt to get a recount in Michigan. 

So Rick Snyder is who he's always been: A Republican who feigns moderation, but has repeatedly proven to be unwilling or unable to stand up to the extremist elements of his party.

I'm not surprised. I just remain very, very disappointed. 

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Could Michigan's restrictive student voter law hurt Bernie Sanders?

The kids may be all right -- but they may not be able to save Bernie Sanders in Michigan.

The Vermont U.S. senator made his first campaign visit here on Monday, dazzling college students at Eastern Michigan University and adding another stop in metro Detroit.

Michigan's March 8 primary could prove pivotal in the Democratic nominating contest, as it's just after Super Tuesday. The Flint water crisis has become a national firestorm, prompting Democrats to schedule a debate in the city on March 6. Little wonder why all three Clintons -- Hillary, Chelsea and Bill -- logged time in the state last week. 

Sanders' lock on younger voters helped him win a double-digit victory in New Hampshire, and almost put him over the top in Iowa. It's little wonder why he chose EMU as the site of his first Michigan event.

But Sanders could have a tougher time earning the youth vote in Michigan. That's because first-time voters  are barred from casting an absentee ballot if they didn't register to vote at a clerk's office or the Secretary of State –– which could impact college students.

Then there's the law that your voter registration address must be at the same address as your drivers license. But many college students keep their home address on their license. So if your license has your Detroit address, but you attend Michigan State University, you're still required by law to vote in Detroit. Since the primary is on a Tuesday, it's safe to say most students won't be home to vote.*

This law has been around for roughly 15 years, courtesy of then-state Sen. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton). Democrats have long groused that Rogers parlayed the law into a razor-thin victory for Congress in 2000, as many MSU students in the district discovered they couldn't vote on campus.

Now this same law might hurt Sanders on March 8, although the election may not be close enough to make a difference. Clinton held a commanding 32-point lead in Inside Michigan Politics/Target Insight's polling taken Feb. 2-4. And the former Secretary of State led every age group, including voters 18-34.

Still, the Democratic primary has been full on unexpected twists. Voter restrictions in Michigan could be another one. 

*This section has been updated at 4:12 p.m. with additional information.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found atSusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter.