Republicans could face backlash in 2018 over Michigan’s roads

"So much for running a government like a business. You can keep the $100 your tax cut will give me, if you take responsibility for your conduct and reimburse me what your potholes have cost me."

That's the message Ann Arbor attorney John Minnock had for Gov. Rick Snyder this week, as reported by the Detroit Free Press. He wasn't alone. Plenty of citizens from across the political spectrum told the Freep how fed up they are with Michigan's roads, which have long been terrible after years of neglect. A harsh winter and epic flooding have made some of the state's major thoroughfares look like the lunar landscape. Washtenaw County even closed one of its main roads indefinitely because it's been swallowed up by potholes, which is probably a sign of things to come.

Minnock was also referring to the bill that Snyder recently signed that restored the personal exemption in Michigan, which was wiped out by President Trump's tax plan last year. Republicans lopped on an increase over time so they could sell it as a tax cut in an election year.

But they rejected Democrats' attempt to fix roads with $275 million this year from the state's Rainy Day Fund.

“It’s raining in Michigan — literally, at times, raining concrete,” declared Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr. (D-East Lansing), which is a pretty pithy quote.

Republicans agreed to spend an extra $175 million for emergency road repairs — $100 million less than the Dems' proposal. But let's be honest. That's just a drop in the bucket. And drivers in Michigan know that.

With a Key U.P. Victory, 2018 Looks Brighter for Michigan Democrats

If you're looking for a window into 2018 in Michigan, the most important race took place last night in the western Upper Peninsula.

On first blush, it looks like a pretty routine result in the special election for the 109th state House District: Democrat Sara Cambensy held a seat that's been blue for more than a half-century. The district has a solid 56.9 percent Democratic base, per Inside Michigan Politics, and became vacant after Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette) tragically killed himself this spring.

But Republicans made a real run at this 109th. Why? They knew that this election was bigger than a single state legislative seat.

Democrats were palpably nervous about the race after Cambensy narrowly won her August primary. Divisions in the party reared their head, as leaders fretted her pro-choice and liberal politics wouldn't play in a district Donald Trump won by 5 points in 2016. Cambensy's history of primarying Kivela last year hadn't been forgotten. And the memory of Trump defying all expectations and winning Michigan in 2016 certainly put a fire under the Dems.

So if Republicans had managed to flip the 109th, I noted that they would have changed the narrative that 2018 would be a good Democratic year in Michigan. Democrats' efforts to take back the House next year (now split 63-47 in the GOP's favor) would have instantly been seen as lost cause and fundraising would have mostly dried up.

The GOP has controlled all three branches of government here since 2010. Trump became the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988. A Republican victory this year in the U.P. — an area that's been shifting conservative since 2010 and went big for Trump in '16 — would have confirmed that Michigan really is an emerging red state. And so even if 2018 continued to look bright for Democrats nationally, we'd have had good reason to believe that Michigan would be immune from the trend.

But those fears were laid to rest, as Cambensy didn't just win. She won in a 14-point rout. Any divisions in the Democratic Party didn't hurt the outcome — just as we saw in the marquee gubernatorial races last night in New Jersey and Virginia.

Republicans really did give this Michigan state House race their all and their nominee, Marquette school board President Rich Rossway, was up on TV. He didn't run a bombastic, base-inspired Trump campaign, either. In fact, he played down his party affiliation (much as Democrats in red areas have done for years) and even walked a picket line, something relatively unheard of for Michigan Republicans since they rammed through Right to Work in 2012.

So now House Democrats are back in the same place they were on Nov. 9, 2016, with two victories Tuesday (the other was the 1st in the Detroit area). Republicans once again have a 63-47 majority, meaning Democrats have to flip nine seats next year to take control.

That's the exact situation the Dems faced in 2016 when they failed to make any net gains. But Democrats' smashing successes in Virginia legislative races last night — a state that, like Michigan, boasts heavily GOP-gerrymandered districts — has definitely made leaders more optimistic. And with clear evidence of an energized base, Democrats are also feeling better about their chances at the top of the ticket with next year's gubernatorial race.

Winning the governor's mansion or the state House in 2018 would give Democrats a seat at the table during Michigan's critical 2021 redistricting — something that hasn't happened for three decades.

And of course, a big Michigan Dem victory would be a stunning reversal for a newly minted Trump state, portending serious problems for the president in 2020.

Trump Supporters Are the Ones Living in a Bubble in Michigan

After Donald Trump’s surprise victory last year, it became almost gospel with beltway pundits that liberals were living in a bubble. That’s been followed by a never-ending stream of profiles of Trump supporters (aka Real Americans) who — wouldn’t ya know it? — vowed to stick with him no matter what.

Now given the fact that Trump’s win shocked most observers, myself included, it makes sense for analysts to look at what they got wrong and who they ignored. But often times, the course correction is riddled with false or overstated assumptions.

By any standard, Trump’s victory was not a landslide. He lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by almost 3 million — which means the majority of the country wasn’t overcome with #MAGA fever. Trump won the Electoral College by flipping three states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — by 80,000 votes, which is roughly the population of Farmington Hills. It’s an impressive strategic win, but a mandate it is not.

For some perspective, consider the fact that Barack Obama’s 2008 win isn’t considered a landslide, even though he won by 7 percentage points, almost 10 million votes and 192 votes in the Electoral College. The Democrats won big majorities in both houses of Congress, achieving a 60-vote supermajority in the Senate.

In 2016, Republicans lost seats in both chambers of Congress in 2016. Democrats picked up six seats in the U.S. House and two seats in the U.S. Senate. That wasn’t enough to gain a majority in either house and fell far short of expectations. But it certainly doesn’t indicate a Trumpian wave crashing over the entire country.

Of course, just pointing out basic facts like this nowadays is enough to get some Trump supporters to shout, “Fake news!” Talk about living in a bubble.

They’ll probably want to close their eyes to new polling from NBC/Marist in the three key Trump states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Michigan poll of 795 votes was conducted Aug. 13 to 17 and had a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Here in the Mitten State, 36 percent of voters approved of the president’s job performance, with just 19 percent strongly approving. Meanwhile, 55 percent disapproved, with 40 percent saying they strongly do.

And 64 percent said that Trump’s conduct embarrassed them. Six in 10 voters said the United States’ role on the world stage has been weakened under Trump.

The best numbers for the president were on the question of whether the U.S. economy has been strengthened by his decisions. Voters by a 42 percent-to-39 percent margin gave him props, within the poll’s margin of error.

The Wisconsin and Pennsylvania numbers are very similar — Trump had a 35/54 job approval in Pennsylvania and was at 34/56 in Wisconsin.

Given the fact that Trump’s numbers are so dismal in the three states that propelled him to victory just nine months ago, it would seem that his vastly outnumbered supporters are the ones living in a bubble. Might be something to mention in any future pseudo-sociological studies of Trump voters.

There's No Way Ruth Johnson Should Turn over Private Voter Information to Trump Commission

Voting is a sacred act and for many people, it remains a private one. That will change under President Trump's Election Integrity Commission.

The commission chaired by Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Vice President Mike Pence is charged with investigating voter fraud. The problem is that this is not a widespread problem, no matter what Trump tweets. The Washington Post found four cases in the entire country for 2016. That's out of 135 million ballots cast. And in Michigan, a state audit found no evidence of voter fraud in Detroit.

The commission has been flying under the radar. But this week, the group sent a letter to all 50 secretaries of state.

Everyone — Republicans, Democrats and independents alike — should be alarmed by the information this commission is demanding. The Chicago Tribune's headline sums it up well: "Trump's voter fraud commission wants voting history, party ID and address of every voter."

But it gets even worse when you read the fine print:

The chair of Donald Trump's Election Integrity Commission has penned a letter to all 50 states requesting their full voter role data, including the name, address, date of birth, party affiliation, last four Social Security number digits and voting history back to 2006 of potentially every voter in the state.

And here's the kicker: Kobach said that "any documents that are submitted to the full Commission will also be made available to the public."

So when you went to the polls, did you expect that your name, address, date of birth, party affiliation, voting history and part of your Social Security number would be released for public consumption?

California, Kentucky, Virginia, Massachusetts and Connecticut have already rejected the commission's intrusive request.

Michigan Secretary of State Ruth Johnson should quickly follow suit to protect voters' privacy and not contribute to this waste of taxpayer dollars.

Michigan's SOS races tend to be quiet affairs, especially as nominees are picked at party conventions. But an issue like voter privacy could become explosive in next year's open race.

Why Are the Media Ignoring Stories about the Millions Impacted by Trumpcare?

If you haven’t heard Jordan Acker’s story, it won’t take long.

In just 16 tweets last weekend, the Huntington Woods dad and attorney revealed how a bad drug reaction shut down his liver. Thankfully, he recovered, but it left him a pre-existing condition. And under Trumpcare, he and millions of others with pre-existing conditions will be paying more for health insurance — and many won’t be able to afford it at all.

Here are the first tweets, but read the whole thing:

To permanently having a preexisting condition. Here it goes. One Sunday morning, I went to play basketball at Joe Dumars Fieldhouse (1/x)

— Jordan Acker (@JordanAckerMI) June 17, 2017

My liver shut down. I'll never forget the date. April 23, 2016. I turned bright yellow. Hospitalized twice. I could barely walk. (3/x)

— Jordan Acker (@JordanAckerMI) June 17, 2017

Acker told me that something amazing happened after he shared his story on Twitter. He heard from roughly 10,000 people, from across the country and across the globe, about their health care issues. Acker thought that was pretty unusual (it is) and tried to see if any media would be interested in the story.

They weren’t.

I can’t tell you why. As a journalist, I know that this is a pretty compelling premise for a human interest story (and it has a social media angle that you can sell to gray-haired management as a way to rope in the hip youngs).

I suppose if I were still a daily journalist covering politics and health care (as I was for many years), I would be a little overwhelmed by all the stories to tell about people impacted by Trumpcare, even right here in Michigan.

There are so many people who will be harmed by Trumpcare that it’s hard to get your head around it. There are the 23 million who will lose insurance under the last version scored by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (the Senate version is still under review).

But the Senate plan goes even further and decimates Medicaid, which serves 75 million people. It’s not just the expansion under Obamacare, mind you — Trumpcare goes after the program itself. Many people know that slashing Medicaid hurts low-income people. But Medicaid provides a range of services, including those for disabled people and nursing home care for seniors. That’s why you saw people in wheelchairs protesting the bill outside the office of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — where they were unceremoniously thrown out.

And there are millions upon millions more who will see their health costs soar — as Trumpcare will raise deductibles, eliminate mandated services (maternity, mental health, substance abuse care, etc.) and put caps on your coverage so insurance companies don’t have to pay anymore if your care costs too much.

If you’re starting to see a pattern that nothing Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail is in there, you are correct. If this is sounding like the bad old days before Obamacare when people went bankrupt for getting cancer, that’s also correct. But on top of that, Republicans want to kill Medicaid, which means that we’re not just going back to 2010. We’re going back to 1965 — only with skyrocketing health care costs to boot.

But to be honest, I’m not seeing a lot of these stories being told. To be sure, some are. Amy Lynn Smith has done a beautiful job chronicling people’s health care stories for years right here. Sarah Kliff has done the same for Vox and Jonathan Cohn has for Huffington Post. But cable news, local TV affiliates and newspapers — which can’t seem to get enough of stories about Trump supporters who still love the president no matter what — are largely ignoring the personal stories of tens of millions of people who will be hurt by Trumpcare.

I expect that this will change if Trumpcare becomes law and more journalists see their grandmothers tossed out of nursing homes, their best friend who can’t get opioid addiction treatment or their newly retired uncle unable to afford insurance.

But that’s no excuse for failing to cover the impact of massive legislation before it’s passed. And when you’re talking about a bill that affects tens of millions of people, I can almost guarantee that your audience would watch, read and react to these stories — which is exactly what outlets should want.

Barb Byrum Talks Michigan Elections and Hacking Concerns

In the midst of the bombardment of news about the U.S. Senate’s secret health care bill, the Michigan Legislature whacking teachers (again) and President Trump lashing out about the FBI’s Russia investigation, it’s easy to overlook some revelations about Russia’s attempt to hack our electoral systems last year.

First, there was the Intercept’s blockbuster story about a top-secret NSA report detailing Russian hacking efforts. Bloomberg News followed up with a report that the hacking attempts were more widespread than previously thought, with 39 states targeted.

Long before these reports, Michigan was a focus of electoral integrity concerns, as our presidential contest was only decided by roughly 10,000 votes. The short-lived presidential recount shed light on problems with the process, especially in Detroit, home to more than 80 broken voting machines. After vote totals in a majority of precincts couldn’t be balanced, the state Bureau of Elections also conducted an audit. Despite stubborn conspiracy theories on the right about rampant voter fraud — which is rather curious, since Trump won the state — the audit found that “an abundance of human errors” by precinct workers was primarily to blame.

This month, the Washington Post had two experts run the numbers and assured us that the vote counts in Michigan and Wisconsin (another key state Trump won) weren’t hacked.

But there are still myriad concerns about possible breaches to voting systems going forward. Is Michigan prepared? I talked to someone with plenty of experience running elections here, two-term Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, who was also a former state representative from 2007 to 2012 and the ranking Democrat on the House Redistricting and Elections Committee. She has been awarded the national title of Certified Elections/Registration Administrator (CERA) serves on the Security Task Force with other national members for Election Center.

Byrum says she believes Michigan elections are “safe and secure as a result of the many safeguards that municipal and county clerks utilize, including the isolation of election networks, the paper ballot trail, and the ability to conduct post-election audits and recounts.” She stressed that the audits are vital.

The clerk also shared her experience in the 2016 general election. She said the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office prompted radio-to-radio communication, implemented through the Michigan State Police, the week before the election.

“I worked closely with the Bureau of Elections and Ingham County’s emergency manager to take all necessary precautions to be able to communicate in case there was any interruption in communication,” Byrum said. “Thankfully, internet and phone services remained intact during the process of the election.”

Byrum noted one change going forward. She said the Secretary of State’s office plans to facilitate the forwarding of emails from voters based outside of the United States to county and municipal clerks through a free email service. She said she has concerns and is raising them with the Bureau of Elections.

“Given the nature of recent hacking attempts, both successful and not, I am alarmed by the recent announcement from the Bureau of Elections. … I worry that encryption will not be sufficient,” Byrum said.

The First Amendment is under attack in Michigan

Susan J. Demas

We all know President-Elect Donald Trump is not a big fan of the First Amendment. During the campaign, the Republican complained it has "too much protection" for free speech. He's routinely targeted journalists at rallies and on Twitter as an intimidation tactic.

After winning the election, Trump's first tweet took aim at people protesting against him, which he whined was "unfair." A few weeks later, he went even further, tweeting the threat that those who exercise their 1A right to burn the American flag could be jailed or stripped of their citizenship.

But while Trump dominates news coverage by unloading outrageous tweets and unveiling cabinet picks with reality show-style flair, the Michigan Legislature has fired a shot against the First Amendment.

Those of us in the Mitten State are used to Republicans who control state government ramming through unpopular right-wing legislation during the lame duck session. Unions are a frequent scapegoat, as we saw with the 2012 Right to Work law. 

This time around, the House has narrowly passed bills that would jack up fines on unions for "illegal" picketers (from $1,000 to $10,000 a day) and make it easier to hire replacement workers (i.e. scabs).

Using labor for political target practice is bad enough. At a time when Michigan's median income still clocks in $5,000 below what it was in 2007, it's amazing that lawmakers keep going after unions trying to win and protect fair wages. But the bills will also likely silence peaceful protests. My read of the legislation (as well as that of several lawyers) is that it's written so broadly that it could run afoul of the First Amendment.

Now that may not deter the Republican-controlled Legislature from sending this package to Gov. Rick Snyder's desk. And the governor, who's a lawyer, has a history of signing bills that experts warned were unconstitutional.

But it would really be something for a significant First Amendment challenge to originate in Michigan. And it's likely a sign of things to come in the Trump era.

Michigan Republicans want to crack down on voting rights, but where's the evidence of fraud?

Let's just dispense with the euphemisms. Republicans are poised to ram through bills that will make it harder to vote in Michigan. 

Here's where we are. Michigan already had a voter ID law, but this new legislation toughens up the process. Currently, if you don't have your ID when you vote, you sign an affidavit and cast a provisional ballot. Your vote is counted in the tally.

But this proposed law would set aside your vote. And it requires you to go back to your local clerk's office and produce your ID within 10 days –– or your vote doesn't count at all.

Laws are traditionally proposed in response to a problem. In this case, you would expect that problem to be a rash of voter fraud cases in Michigan. After all, the bills were introduced after the Nov. 8 election, just in time for the frenzied Lame Duck session in the run-up to the holidays (when voters conveniently aren't paying attention).

You would be wrong.  

I have yet to see any documented cases of voter fraud in Michigan in the 2016 election. The Washington Post has only found four cases in the entire country. To put this in perspective, 135 million ballots were cast in this election.

That's why Republican former Senate Majority Leader Ken Sikkema and I both agreed in a Michigan Radio interview on Friday that these voter ID bills aren't necessary.

“There’s very little documentation of voter fraud in Michigan,” Sikkema said. “Some legislator ... or some party activist dreamed this up and said, well, Michigan ought to do this, other states do it, but in my opinion, they’re not necessary.”

Surprise! Rick Snyder makes nice with Donald Trump

A few weeks ago, I wrote a column entreating Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder to stand up to Donald Trump, given his status as a businessman-turned-Rust Belt governor who preaches the virtues of civility.

While Democrats and liberal activists can be expected to do the heavy lifting when it comes to opposing the authoritarian elements of Trump's presidency, it's vital to have as many conservative and Republican voices as possible join in. For starters, this supersedes ideology. And historically, bipartisan movements are taken more seriously by the public and the media.

Here's part of my argument:

You may not have liked what President Hillary Clinton may have wrought in terms of taxes and regulation, but I believe you stay up at night wondering what President Trump will do with the nuclear codes.

Warning signs abound. The president-elect’s chief White House adviser is Steve Bannon, who runs the white nationalist website, Breitbart.com (which is primed to become some sort of state-run media a la Pravda). Trump refuses to set up a blind trust for his far-reaching business interests, instead saying he’ll turn them over to his children (who may have access to state secrets). And he’s playing footsie with Vladimir Putin on the national stage already.

None of these are partisan issues. These are all red flags about how our republic will function.

I got some pushback from readers for my alleged naiveté, mostly coming from those unfamiliar with my frequent criticism of Snyder over the Flint water crisis, Right to Work, child poverty, LGBT rights and much more. And no, I didn't believe my column would have any impact, as I indicated in the column itself:

Of course, I’m not the right person to ask this of you. It should be the Detroit News’ Nolan Finley or better yet, a Republican colleague. I’ve been one of your fiercest critics over Right to Work and the Flint Water crisis. I’m probably about as popular in your inner circle as I was with that of your predecessor, Jennifer Granholm.

And even if you were to vocally oppose Trump, I wouldn’t stop holding your feet to the fire over your policies in Michigan. Neither will my colleagues. It doesn’t work that way. So this is all probably sounding like a terrific proposition for you.

I doubt the governor reads me or cares what I think. But it was worth a shot. And sometimes it's important to put things on the record.

So last week, Snyder did exactly what you'd expect, declaring that he looks "forward to building a relationship" with Trump. That's quite the change from his October take, when he called Trump's "grab 'em by the pussy" remarks "revolting and disgusting." Time heals all wounds, I guess. 

The governor even went so far as to defend Trump in a tweet Monday against the Green Party's attempt to get a recount in Michigan. 

So Rick Snyder is who he's always been: A Republican who feigns moderation, but has repeatedly proven to be unwilling or unable to stand up to the extremist elements of his party.

I'm not surprised. I just remain very, very disappointed. 

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Could Michigan's restrictive student voter law hurt Bernie Sanders?

The kids may be all right -- but they may not be able to save Bernie Sanders in Michigan.

The Vermont U.S. senator made his first campaign visit here on Monday, dazzling college students at Eastern Michigan University and adding another stop in metro Detroit.

Michigan's March 8 primary could prove pivotal in the Democratic nominating contest, as it's just after Super Tuesday. The Flint water crisis has become a national firestorm, prompting Democrats to schedule a debate in the city on March 6. Little wonder why all three Clintons -- Hillary, Chelsea and Bill -- logged time in the state last week. 

Sanders' lock on younger voters helped him win a double-digit victory in New Hampshire, and almost put him over the top in Iowa. It's little wonder why he chose EMU as the site of his first Michigan event.

But Sanders could have a tougher time earning the youth vote in Michigan. That's because first-time voters  are barred from casting an absentee ballot if they didn't register to vote at a clerk's office or the Secretary of State –– which could impact college students.

Then there's the law that your voter registration address must be at the same address as your drivers license. But many college students keep their home address on their license. So if your license has your Detroit address, but you attend Michigan State University, you're still required by law to vote in Detroit. Since the primary is on a Tuesday, it's safe to say most students won't be home to vote.*

This law has been around for roughly 15 years, courtesy of then-state Sen. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton). Democrats have long groused that Rogers parlayed the law into a razor-thin victory for Congress in 2000, as many MSU students in the district discovered they couldn't vote on campus.

Now this same law might hurt Sanders on March 8, although the election may not be close enough to make a difference. Clinton held a commanding 32-point lead in Inside Michigan Politics/Target Insight's polling taken Feb. 2-4. And the former Secretary of State led every age group, including voters 18-34.

Still, the Democratic primary has been full on unexpected twists. Voter restrictions in Michigan could be another one. 

*This section has been updated at 4:12 p.m. with additional information.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found atSusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter.