Susan J. Demas: Epstein Dishes It Out — But Can She Take It?

Lena Epstein hasn’t been afraid to throw some sharp elbows since embarking on her first run for office.

So it’s been interesting to watch the 36-year-old businesswoman, who’s Jewish, navigate her first controversy, allegedly “liking” a former Klan leader David Duke tweet. Epstein has insisted her account was hacked and aggressively fought her critics, particularly Democratic Party Chair Brandon Dillon.

Epstein was now-President Donald Trump’s Michigan campaign co-chair, best known for frequently spinning for him on TV. Now she’s hoping to take on three-term U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) — but first, Epstein will have to slay a competitive — and possibly growing — GOP primary field.

To separate herself from the pack and play to the Trump faithful, Epstein hasn’t shied away from taking the fight to her Republican opponents.

After dominating much of the early coverage, Epstein has found herself overshadowed by Kid Rock, the Macomb County native who’s been hinting about joining the esteemed company of the World’s Most Deliberative Body. The rock/rap star has led some polls, providing an irresistible story for the Washington press corps.

In an interview last month on Kid Rock’s candidacy, Epstein insisted that the general public “is not taking this seriously.” Then she released an choppy, face-to-the-camera YouTube video titled, “Lena Epstein Welcomes Kid Rock 2 the Party,” which has to be one of the most awkward 55 seconds ever to be (willingly) posted online.

Epstein begins by talking about her Senate candidacy as a rock-guitar version of “The Star-Spangled Banner” blares in the background. Then she announces to her celeb competition, “I might have to kick your butt in a primary first,” followed by an awkward, Sarah Palin-style wink and an invitation to “team up” on the campaign trail.

Kid Rock would likely cannibalize the Trump support Epstein needs to win in August 2018, so it makes sense that she wouldn’t go full throttle. She’s saved her best barbs for former Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bob Young, who’s been endorsed by former Gov. John Engler and enjoys some establishment backing.

Even before Young jumped in, Epstein was on the attack, announcing her “unapologetic” support for Trump’s wall with Mexico and his policy to punish “sanctuary cities.” She also bought an online ad challenging Young to “clarify where he stands on these critical issues.”

After Young declared, Epstein lumped him in with Stabenow and slammed their combined almost 60 years in elective office, in contrast to her outsider credentials.

Her campaign launched BobYoung.com, where he’s blasted as “The Insider’s Choice” and she bizarrely told the Detroit News that “the reality of the situation is he was recruited by a couple of party insiders that are essentially trying to gerrymander a primary.” (There’s no clarification about what she meant, but it is, of course, impossible to gerrymander a statewide race).

So after relishing doing battle with her Republican competition, Epstein found herself on the defensive this week after Dillon circulated tweets she allegedly “liked,” including one by Duke praising the “alt-right” (which is just failed rebranding of white supremacy).

That came after Epstein had tweeted against the white power rally in Virginia: “Racially-motivated hatred & violence have no place in our society. I condemn white nationalists & pray for the victims of #Charlottesville.” But she also went on Fox News to defend Trump — who was widely criticized by Republicans for “both-sidesing” Nazis — declaring she supports “a president who has come off strongly against racism and bigotry and violence.”

Epstein said she was hacked and her private investigator backs her up. Now the Michigan State Police are investigating. I’ve been covering politics for awhile and I’ve never heard of a candidate’s social media account getting hacked only to “like” a few tweets, but we’ll have to see what the police uncover.

Regardless, Epstein’s combative, best-defense-is-a-good-offense approach to the mini-scandal is a window into how she’ll handle bigger challenges as a candidate.

She issued a statement reminding people of her Jewish identity, which is understandable — no doubt, she faced some tough questions from those who share her faith. But then Epstein declared she was “disgusted by Chairman Brandon Dillon and the Michigan Democrat Party for exploiting what is so obviously false. I am more committed than ever before- and will work tirelessly between now and November of 2018- to defeat Debbie Stabenow and demonstrate that the slander fueled by the opposition will not deter or intimidate me. The hateful rhetoric must stop now."

Complaining about “slander fueled by the opposition” doesn’t exactly come off as the Trumpian bravado that’s so enthralled the GOP base. It’s hard to imagine Kid Rock issuing such a statement. (He’d probably just do something like flip the bird to his haters and move on).

Most Michigan political observers don’t expect the rock star to really run. But Epstein’s over-the-top response to a minor scandal will probably make many Republicans wish he would.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Republicans Root for a U.P. Upset

In November 2009, Republicans were on suicide watch, both nationally and in Michigan.

President Barack Obama had won the ‘08 election with an almost 10 million-vote margin and still enjoyed a healthy approval rating a year later. Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, including a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. And the Dems had won several special congressional elections.

In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm had the help of a huge majority in the House (67-43) and the Dems had an 8-7 congressional advantage. The one bright spot for the GOP was the Senate, which they’d controlled for 25 years. With the ascension of Sen. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) to Congress, the GOP had a 21-16 edge.

The special Nov. 3, 2009, election to fill Schauer’s slot wasn’t a terribly exciting affair, but it was a huge morale boost for once-dejected Republicans (yes, there was singing on the Senate floor the next day).

Former Rep. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) decisively beating Rep. Marty Griffin (D-Jackson) became a bellwether for the 2010 election cycle. Not only did Griffin go on to lose his House seat, but the GOP ran the table, winning the governorship, a 9-5 advantage in Congress, a 63-47 majority in the House and a 26-12 supermajority in the Senate.

Republicans also flipped the U.S. House and came close in the upper chamber, effectively stalling Obama’s agenda. And the GOP scored big in other key states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia, which proved invaluable during the decennial redistricting process.

Eight years later, President Donald Trump has a GOP Congress and Republicans still control everything in Michigan. Now Democrats are hoping for history to repeat itself in 2018 with the president’s party getting pounded in the midterms. Having a Democratic governor going into the next redistricting is the ultimate prize in Michigan.

But Republicans see another scenario. And it starts with another special legislative election this November, one that’s largely been overlooked in the Upper Peninsula.

Many Republicans believe ‘16 was a sea change in our state, with Trump’s stunning victory finally pushing us to red (or at least reddish-purple) status. Michigan is getting older and is less educated than most states. We don’t have a significant, growing Latino population. All these demographic trends bode well for the GOP.

Republicans also have favorably gerrymandered legislative maps to fall back on. And they’ve also made big gains in key areas like the U.P., the northern lower peninsula and Macomb County, which should help them mitigate or even withstand even a powerful blue wave tearing through the legislative map.

And Republicans are making noise about coming for three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), openly praying that hometown sensation Kid Rock is serious about running and not just trying to sell concert tickets and merch.

Michigan has a special place in Trump’s heart, as it’s one of the three Rust Belt states that flipped to put him in the White House. And Republican National Committee Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, a Michigan native, can also be expected to spread the love in terms of money and surrogates.

So the GOP is somewhat optimistic that they’ll be insulated from the historic precedent of the president’s party taking a hit in off-year elections.

But to get things off on the right foot, they’d love to steal what looks like a safe Democratic seat. The 109th in the central U.P., which includes Marquette, Ishpeming and Manistique, has a 56.9% Democratic base, according to Inside Michigan Politics.

The seat is open because Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette) tragically killed himself after being stopped for drunken driving. This week, Sara Cambensy, a former Marquette city commissioner, won the Dem special primary. She’ll face Republican Rich Rossway, president of the Marquette school board, in the Nov. 7 special general election.

GOP strategists are excited about Rossway, a 17-year veteran of the board with strong ties to the community. Interestingly, he’s adopting the tactic used by many a Democrat in red-trending or socially conservative areas (like Griffin did) and isn’t stressing his party label. Instead, Rossway has been playing up his bipartisan credentials and making the case that he’ll put the U.P.’s needs before partisan concerns.

Republicans also see an opening because the Cambensy barely pulled off a win on Aug. 8. Last year, she also primaried Kivela, who was a beloved figure, which left some Dems with a bad taste in their mouths.

If Rossway scores a Trump-like upset, that gives the GOP another vote in the state House. As the Dems are expected to maintain the 1st District seat in Detroit and Harper Woods on Nov. 7, that would bring the GOP to a bone-crushing 64-46 advantage.

But flipping the 109th is bigger than that. It’s about changing the narrative about 2018 in Michigan and demoralizing Democrats, who have seen an influx of new energy from both the Indivisible and Bernie Sanders “Our Revolution” groups.

Republican operatives, no doubt, are already auditioning clever soundbites about how the Dems should just pack it in for good in Michigan.

It’s a longshot for sure. But for Republicans, it doesn’t hurt to dream.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Republicans Hope Kid Rock Is for Real

Donald Trump is president. So of course, Kid Rock can be the next U.S. senator from Michigan.

That’s the argument pundits and Republicans are essentially making after the Macomb County rock star released a website teasing the prospect (with merch, natch). And it may be correct.

As I told the Washington Post earlier this month, I would have laughed at the idea of Senator Rock in 2015. But I got plenty wrong about Trump and the 2016 election and it’s always worth reconsidering data points and assumptions.

Of course, there’s also a danger in overlearning the lessons of the last election and assuming the next one will take place under identical circumstances (which never happens).

Anyway, here’s why Republicans (and the D.C. media) are so pumped about a Kid Rock candidacy for 2018.

The first reason is the breathless media coverage it would inspire (and already has). There’s nothing like a local-boy-made-good story and the “Cowboy” singer, who still has deep roots in the Mitten State, provides that in spades (even if he doesn’t have an inspiring rags-to-riches story, having grown up in what Politico describes as an “immense, 18-room, 5,628-square-foot estate”).

Sure, Trump frequently flings irascible tweets about certain reporters and the “failing New York Times.” And a new Economist poll shows 45 percent of Republicans favor the courts shutting down media outlets for “biased or inaccurate stories (buh-bye, First Amendment). But Republicans still crave positive mainstream media coverage for all their bluster. And thus far, there’s been plenty for Kid Rock.

Plus, the right-wing media is always happy to step in and provide a boost. As Daily Caller writer Scott Greer tweeted, “Let's face it: we all want Kid Rock to run for office.”

This calculation is undoubtedly correct. Suddenly, Michigan’s once-boring U.S. Senate race, where popular three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) was expected to wipe the floor with any GOP challenger, will become The Most Interesting Race in the Country.

Now many longtime Republicans have pointed out that other candidates running, like former Michigan Supreme Court Judge Bob Young and businessman John James, are far more qualified, so this lopsided coverage wouldn’t fair. That’s the same argument the 15 other presidential hopefuls made about Trump, however, which was also correct — but many in the media, especially ratings-driven cable TV executives, didn’t care.

That’s why most Republicans believe Kid Rock would be the odds-on favorite in a GOP primary — overpowering Young, James and former Michigan Trump campaign co-chair Lena Epstein (who was banking on the president’s support) — and make the general a nail-biter.

However, the superstar could always just be toying with a run to juice his long-declining album sales. And of course, should he actually take the plunge, he’ll appear as “Robert Ritchie” on the ballot, which means his campaign will have to spend time and money making his two monikers synonymous with voters.

The second reason why Republicans are urging Kid Rock to run is that they're eager to see if Trump’s politically incorrect celebrity schtick can work down-ballot.

Like the president, Kid Rock has had his share of personal drama, from his sex tape to divorcing Pamela Anderson (a former Playboy Playmate best known for hers), and a racking up a few assault charges along the way. But the theory is that if Trump’s crudeness didn’t cost him with voters, especially the once-uptight religious right, Kid Rock will glide by in his U.S. Senate race.

Relatedly, Republicans believe that Kid Rock will cause (white) blue-collar voters to swamp the polls like they would for a free concert. The idea is that this will eat away at Stabenow’s base, which is more rural than that of other Dems, thanks to her farming roots. And the GOP will duplicate Trump’s narrow 2016 win in Michigan. Of course, Trump's poll numbers in the state have slid since then.

This week, the White House said the quiet part out loud to the press and admitted Trump’s surprise tweets announcing a transgender ban in the military was all about politics. “This forces Democrats in Rust Belt states like Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, to take complete ownership of this issue,” an official bragged to Axios. (Thus far, this doesn’t seem like a smashing success, as even staunch conservatives like U.S. Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) have criticized the move).

But the GOP knows that 2018 looks to be a Democratic year for two reasons: Their massively unpopular Trumpcare policy and the historic precedent of the party in the White House taking a hit in midterm elections.

The situation could be more dire in Michigan, as Republicans have controlled every branch of government since 2011 and voters start to get twitchy. Michigan also still trends blue in federal races and Stabenow is an excellent candidate, from her stellar fundraising to tireless time on the stump.

This all underscores something that’s been overlooked in all the Kid Rock ruckus. After Trump scored his shocking upset in Michigan last year, there was all sorts of chest-thumping from Republicans that we were a red state now and Stabenow was toast in ‘18.

But as Republicans revealed to Politico, Kid Rock represents a hail Mary pass, as  Stabenow has “devoured her last two challengers and will almost certainly make it three in a row if Republicans run another traditional campaign.”

So Kid Rock could be for real and there’s a shot he could win. But the enthusiasm for his candidacy belies some real fundamental weaknesses in Michigan for the GOP.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.