Susan J. Demas: Another GOP Stabenow Challenger Bites the Dust

What a difference a year makes. And U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) probably couldn’t be happier.

This week, yet another one of her high-profile opponents, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young, bowed out. The Harvard alum known for his erudite eviscerations from the bench had tried to metamorphose into an angry Trump acolyte, from his Facebook Live announcement in which he yelled about being “the disruptor” to his cringey slogan, “Bow Tie. Bad Ass.”

It was like if William F. Buckley suddenly tried to transform himself into Vanilla Ice. And it didn’t work.

Young follows in the footsteps of Lena Epstein, a Trump surrogate who decided her talents would be best used in an open metro Detroit congressional seat. And of course, U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) and rap/rock star Kid Rock never pulled the trigger, despite considerable hype.

That leaves the GOP field with three candidates: John James, an Iraq war veteran and political newcomer; businessman Sandy Pensler; and historic preservationist Bob Carr.

President Trump’s numbers have tumbled in Michigan. Our Senate election hasn’t even cracked the top 10 races in 2018. And more and more analysts are predicting a national Democratic wave next year.

Stabenow, who’s sitting on a $7 million war chest, probably isn’t shaking in her boots — but she’ll run like someone who’s 20 points behind. That’s just the Stabenow way.

But let’s remember that at the onset of 2017, Republicans were riding high. Trump had just become the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988, pushing him over the top in the Electoral College. And victory was all the sweeter since even many conservatives had resigned themselves to four years of another Democratic president.

So Republicans were feeling buoyant about 2018. They’d already had an impressive run since 2011, controlling the governor’s mansion, attorney general’s office, secretary of state’s domain, state House, state Senate, state Supreme Court and congressional delegation. And most GOP strategists expected the good times to keep on rolling through the next election, especially as Michigan was Trump country now.

They even set their sights on the most powerful Democrat in the state, something that had seemed laughable before Nov. 8, 2016. I’d even written a column in the fall of 2015 with this lead: “Every six years, Michigan Republicans get to play their least-favorite game: Who wants to lose to Debbie Stabenow?”

Consider the electoral history of Michigan’s senior senator. Stabenow won the seat in 2000 by coming from behind to knock out incumbent Spencer Abraham, who Republicans had thought was a lock. Since then, she’s dispatched both her challengers, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, by double digits.

The three-term senator is the once (and perhaps future) Senate Agriculture Chair, as she’s never lost touch with her farm roots in Clare. Nobody outworks her and she’s always a prodigious fundraiser.

But as Republican powerbrokers eagerly awaited President Trump’s inauguration, they tittered that Stabenow’s time was finally up.

Some dejected Democrats worried they were right and confided that if the GOP could oust Stabenow, that would be the death knell for the party in Michigan. The state’s other Democratic senator, freshman Gary Peters, would be toast in 2020 and nobody with a “D” after their name would ever win anything again.

If there’s one thing that Democrats excel at, it’s dreaming up elaborate Chicken Little scenarios.

Republicans began jumping into the ‘18 Senate race with abandon. But everyone was overshadowed by the prospect of Kid Rock teasing a run, with even former White House senior adviser Steve Bannon reportedly wooing him.

The national media nearly collectively lost their mind, spinning cliché-strewn stories and tweets about how the hardscrabble Macomb County kid (who grew up in a sprawling mansion) would capture the hearts of all the hard hats at the Warren bowling alleys and become the Donald Trump of the Senate.

After exploiting everyone’s credulousness and selling out some concerts, Kid Rock went on “The Howard Stern Show” last fall and almost admirably declared, “F--- no, I’m not running for Senate; are you kidding me?”

By then, Epstein had already dropped out of the Senate race to pursue the seat left open by the retirement of U.S. Rep. Dave Trott (R-Birmingham).* But at least she left behind the gift that keeps on giving, a deliciously awkward 55-second YouTube video titled, “Lena Epstein Welcomes Kid Rock 2 the Party,” complete with her flashing a Sarah Palin-style wink.

Upton took a pass on the race before Thanksgiving (thankfully before he had to degrade himself on social media). And now Young has taken his badass bowtie and gone home.

As it stands now, Republicans find themselves in the familiar position of trying to coalesce around a less-than ideal nominee, kicking in some cash and hoping against hope that Stabenow slips up.

They could always get lucky in 2018. But not too many would take those odds.

* Party affiliation corrected.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Republicans Root for a U.P. Upset

In November 2009, Republicans were on suicide watch, both nationally and in Michigan.

President Barack Obama had won the ‘08 election with an almost 10 million-vote margin and still enjoyed a healthy approval rating a year later. Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, including a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. And the Dems had won several special congressional elections.

In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm had the help of a huge majority in the House (67-43) and the Dems had an 8-7 congressional advantage. The one bright spot for the GOP was the Senate, which they’d controlled for 25 years. With the ascension of Sen. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) to Congress, the GOP had a 21-16 edge.

The special Nov. 3, 2009, election to fill Schauer’s slot wasn’t a terribly exciting affair, but it was a huge morale boost for once-dejected Republicans (yes, there was singing on the Senate floor the next day).

Former Rep. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) decisively beating Rep. Marty Griffin (D-Jackson) became a bellwether for the 2010 election cycle. Not only did Griffin go on to lose his House seat, but the GOP ran the table, winning the governorship, a 9-5 advantage in Congress, a 63-47 majority in the House and a 26-12 supermajority in the Senate.

Republicans also flipped the U.S. House and came close in the upper chamber, effectively stalling Obama’s agenda. And the GOP scored big in other key states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia, which proved invaluable during the decennial redistricting process.

Eight years later, President Donald Trump has a GOP Congress and Republicans still control everything in Michigan. Now Democrats are hoping for history to repeat itself in 2018 with the president’s party getting pounded in the midterms. Having a Democratic governor going into the next redistricting is the ultimate prize in Michigan.

But Republicans see another scenario. And it starts with another special legislative election this November, one that’s largely been overlooked in the Upper Peninsula.

Many Republicans believe ‘16 was a sea change in our state, with Trump’s stunning victory finally pushing us to red (or at least reddish-purple) status. Michigan is getting older and is less educated than most states. We don’t have a significant, growing Latino population. All these demographic trends bode well for the GOP.

Republicans also have favorably gerrymandered legislative maps to fall back on. And they’ve also made big gains in key areas like the U.P., the northern lower peninsula and Macomb County, which should help them mitigate or even withstand even a powerful blue wave tearing through the legislative map.

And Republicans are making noise about coming for three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), openly praying that hometown sensation Kid Rock is serious about running and not just trying to sell concert tickets and merch.

Michigan has a special place in Trump’s heart, as it’s one of the three Rust Belt states that flipped to put him in the White House. And Republican National Committee Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, a Michigan native, can also be expected to spread the love in terms of money and surrogates.

So the GOP is somewhat optimistic that they’ll be insulated from the historic precedent of the president’s party taking a hit in off-year elections.

But to get things off on the right foot, they’d love to steal what looks like a safe Democratic seat. The 109th in the central U.P., which includes Marquette, Ishpeming and Manistique, has a 56.9% Democratic base, according to Inside Michigan Politics.

The seat is open because Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette) tragically killed himself after being stopped for drunken driving. This week, Sara Cambensy, a former Marquette city commissioner, won the Dem special primary. She’ll face Republican Rich Rossway, president of the Marquette school board, in the Nov. 7 special general election.

GOP strategists are excited about Rossway, a 17-year veteran of the board with strong ties to the community. Interestingly, he’s adopting the tactic used by many a Democrat in red-trending or socially conservative areas (like Griffin did) and isn’t stressing his party label. Instead, Rossway has been playing up his bipartisan credentials and making the case that he’ll put the U.P.’s needs before partisan concerns.

Republicans also see an opening because the Cambensy barely pulled off a win on Aug. 8. Last year, she also primaried Kivela, who was a beloved figure, which left some Dems with a bad taste in their mouths.

If Rossway scores a Trump-like upset, that gives the GOP another vote in the state House. As the Dems are expected to maintain the 1st District seat in Detroit and Harper Woods on Nov. 7, that would bring the GOP to a bone-crushing 64-46 advantage.

But flipping the 109th is bigger than that. It’s about changing the narrative about 2018 in Michigan and demoralizing Democrats, who have seen an influx of new energy from both the Indivisible and Bernie Sanders “Our Revolution” groups.

Republican operatives, no doubt, are already auditioning clever soundbites about how the Dems should just pack it in for good in Michigan.

It’s a longshot for sure. But for Republicans, it doesn’t hurt to dream.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Michigan’s GOP U.S. Senate Skirmish Stars Donald Trump

There aren’t a lot of hard-and-fast rules in politics left now that a former pro-wrestling instigator and reality TV star is president.

But staying true to yourself still remains a good rule of thumb for anyone who wants to appear on a ballot. (Indeed, that worked out pretty well last year for Donald Trump, who made no attempt to stop tossing Twitter bombs in favor of stilted political speeches).

So if you’re a longtime business executive who’s donated to moderate candidates and sent your kids to private schools, you might not want to suddenly reinvent yourself as a Bernie Sanders-style Democrat prepping for the “revolution,” even if the neck beard suits you.

Likewise, if you’re a former chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court who’s built a decades-long reputation for being a thoughtful, judicious conservative, you might want to rethink the idea of running as a Trump-style Republican.

But that’s exactly what Bob Young is doing in his uphill battle for U.S. Senate in 2018.

Since it wasn’t exactly a secret that he was running (he let the cat slip out of the bag earlier this month at a GOP fundraiser in Mt. Pleasant), Young decided to make the announcement this week on Facebook Live, where political consultants think all the youngs hang out. (As the mother of two teenagers, I can confirm that is 100% not true).

“I’m the disruptor that D.C. needs,” Young declared, quite animatedly, outside what he said was his childhood home in Detroit.

“I’m not a politician — I’m a judge,” Young said in a statement. “When I get to Washington, I’m going to lay down the law — no more big government, and no more government getting in the way of businesses and communities solving problems and creating jobs.”

At first blush, you might think that Young was trying to draw a strong contrast to three-term U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), who Republicans are utterly convinced is beatable.

Young described himself as a “black, conservative Republican” and dismissed Stabenow (who’s just a year older) as a “product of the past.” (That also seems fairly reminiscent of Trump, 71, slamming Hillary Clinton, 69, for not having “the stamina” to be president).

But this is really about the Republican primary. Young was undoubtedly hoping for an uncontested race. Instead, he’ll have to battle with 35-year-old Lena Epstein, who made a name for herself as Trump’s No. 1 defender in Michigan last year. She jumped into the Senate race while Young was still mulling over his candidacy.

While many Michigan Republicans were wary of or even publicly critical of Trump, like Gov. Rick Snyder, Epstein had no such qualms and quickly became the real estate magnate’s state campaign co-chair. That’s something that Trump isn’t likely to forget — and neither will his diehard supporters in the party.

So Epstein has carved out her territory in the Republican primary as the true Trumpian candidate. As a businessperson who’s never run for office before, she’s a true outsider. And, like Young, Epstein is not afraid to play up her identity, stressing in an op-ed last year that she’s a Jewish millennial woman.

That’s going to be a tough combination for Young to beat.

Epstein also seems itching for a fight (and she’s hired GOP consultant John Yob, who specializes in internecine warfare).

Before Young declared, she announced that she “unapologetically” supports Trump’s promised to build a wall with Mexico and punish “sanctuary cities.” And in a move that caused political junkies to break out the popcorn, Epstein bought an online ad in which she challenged Young to “clarify where he stands on these critical issues.”

Epstein didn’t let up when Young made his formal announcement, ripping Stabenow and Young for their combined almost 60 years in elective office. Then Epstein reaffirmed her affinity for all things Trump and asserted that Michigan voters made it clear in 2016 that they wanted “outside leaders with business experience.”

I’m not sure how Young can really compete with Epstein on the Trumpian outsider front. He has a long record of public service. He’s a traditional conservative in the Michigan mold of John Engler and Spence Abraham (who Stabenow beat in 2000 to win the seat).

The problem is that brand of Republicanism just may not resonate with the base anymore. But it’s probably a more believable look for Young, who just isn’t cut out to sell Trump-like rants.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Michigan GOP Could Go All in on Trump in U.S. Senate Race

Unlike most of the political class in Michigan, Lena Epstein boarded the Trump train early. And now she’s hoping to hitch a ride to the U.S. Senate in 2018.

After supporting social conservative Rick Santorum, who fell short in his 2012 presidential bid, Epstein settled on Donald Trump in early 2016 while most Michigan Republicans were flocking to mainstream choices like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz or John Kasich.

Epstein, the general manager for her family’s business, Southfield-based Vesco Oil, has said she was drawn to Trump as a fellow businessperson.

She soon became the Michigan campaign’s co-chair, defending him on everything from the loan his real estate mogul father gave him (she quoted Fred Trump saying, “Everything [Donald] touches seems to turn to gold”) to the “Access Hollywood” tape where the younger Trump bragged about being able to “grab ‘em by the pussy” (Epstein quipped that “he would not be my first choice for my child’s temple Sunday school teacher”).

Epstein explained her surrogacy style to the media thusly: “I never apologized for misstatements he made. I would just pivot to why I supported him: to grow the economy, protect our borders and have increased opportunities for families and children.”

In an October 2016 pro-Trump op-ed for the Jewish News, the 35-year-old laid down her marker: “I’m Jewish. I’m a woman. I’m a millennial.”

Those are all qualities that Epstein has played up as she’s declared for U.S. Senate against three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing). The hardworking former Senate Agriculture Committee chair is the rare Democrat who knows how to reach voters above M-10.

It’s an interesting gamble. Trump’s poll numbers are tumbling both in Michigan and nationally. But the president still has solid support with Republicans, even amidst the unpopularity of Trumpcare and as his administration has become engulfed in scandal over its ties to Russia.

If this holds, the GOP could face a Catch-22. Perhaps only a Trump loyalist can win the U.S. Senate GOP primary. But that strong pro-Trump stance could cost a Republican nominee in the general election.

Many politicos think Epstein has the GOP nomination in the bag. It’s no secret that Republicans have long believed that the only way to take out Stabenow is with a female candidate. And they’ve also pined for a self-funder, as the incumbent is known for her huge fundraising hauls.

Epstein checks a lot of boxes. She hails from southeast Michigan, the population base of the state, and has a family fortune from which to draw. She has impeccable Trump credentials and a well-known campaign consultant, John Yob, who advised the last two Republicans who ran for U.S. Senate (Pete Hoekstra in 2012 and Terri Lynn Land in ‘14, both of whom lost).

But it’s early. And it’s not a done deal that Epstein will have a clear field. Former state Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) has been on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s radar. Former Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bob Young is still very interested and would have plenty of GOP support. And U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who has crossover appeal, hasn’t ruled out a run. In fact, with Democrats making noise about targeting his seat in ‘18, now might be the ideal time for him to take the leap for Senate.

Let’s not forget that many insiders also decided early this year that Gretchen Whitmer had the ‘18 Democratic nomination for governor wrapped up. For a few hours after U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) announced he wouldn’t run, their thesis seemed correct.

But then University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein, who also runs the well-known Bernstein law firm, quickly started putting out feelers. That prompted another prominent attorney, 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Geoffrey Fieger, to get in on the action with a spicy “Off the Record” appearance. Now Whitmer is looking for a new campaign spokesperson and it looks like the race could descend into a free-for-all.

There are still 438 days before the Aug. 7, 2018 primary. A lot can change in any race. The only thing we can definitively say at this point is that next year’s election doesn’t look boring.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here. 

Susan J. Demas: Can Democrats take back the U.S. Senate in 2016?

Last year, Michigan's own Gary Peters became the only freshman Democratic U.S. senator.
He managed to buck the red tide, running a smart campaign against Republican Terri Lynn Land, who turned out to be a startlingly weak opponent.

Aside from Peters' win, 2014 was a bloodbath for the Dems, who lost big races in Iowa, Colorado, Arkansas and Louisiana. That flipped the chamber for the first time since 2006 to the GOP, 54-46. Things were so grim for the D's that they came perilously close to losing their Virginia seat, which no one thought was up for grabs.

So Democrats are naturally relieved that the 2016 landscape is looking considerably better, with the GOP defending 24 seats.

Read more.