Susan J. Demas: African-American Women Want Conyers’ Seat

The race to replace former Dean of the House John Conyers Jr., who angrily resigned in December after a series of sexual harassment allegations, promised to be a rollicking free-for-all.

And so far, it hasn’t disappointed.

When all is said and done, more than a dozen Democrats could appear on the August ballot for the Detroit-based 13th congressional seat. And to add to the confusion, many, if not all, will appear twice — once for the special election to fill the remainder of Conyers’ term and another for the next term starting in 2019.

So far, most attention has been on the two men named “Conyers” vying for the seat, but there’s another important story of African-American women yearning for more representation.

In its typical snarky style, Vice noted how Michigan’s penchant for dynasties could play a role in not just the open 13th, but the 9th district this year: “Lord Conyers of Highland Park [sic] has two relatives trying to replace him; and retiring Representative Sander Levin (brother of former Senator Carl Levin and resident of perfectly named Royal Oak) is trying to get his son Andy to win the nomination for his old seat.”

Right before tendering his resignation, Conyers endorsed his son, John Conyers III, a hedge fund manager and political novice. The scion’s campaign isn’t subtle — his committee is titled “Conyers to Conyers.” After his father’s historic civil rights career ended in scandal, the younger Conyers could bring more of the same to Congress, as he was busted for driving a taxpayer-funded Escalade and arrested in 2017 for domestic violence.

State Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit), has also declared. The congressman’s great-nephew, who won a special election in 2016, was considered leadership material in the Legislature. He’s also been an ally of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, but failed to earn his blessing this time around.

Instead, Duggan, fresh off a thunderous re-election, just threw his weight behind Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, with whom he’s worked on rebuilding Detroit post-bankruptcy. They mayor’s early endorsement — before the field has even been set — sends a message to rivals and key organizations that Jones is the favorite. TV Judge Greg Mathis, who briefly flirted with a bid, is on board. Look for the UAW to follow suit.

Jones is a logical standard-bearer. She’s the former president of Communications Workers of America, Local 4004 and won the National Organization for Women’s Sojourner Truth Award. Jones has pledged to uphold Congressman Conyers’ civil rights legacy and fully restore the Voting Rights Act.

She would also join U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield) as the second African-American member of Michigan’s congressional delegation (and, as it stands now, she’d be only the third woman). Many politicos, by the way, underestimated Lawrence in the open 14th primary back in 2014. Her longtime adviser, Christy Jensen, who’s one of the savviest Dems in Michigan, now works for Jones.

Two other African-American women have declared in the 13th and it’s no coincidence. They’ve been leading the resistance against President Trump, after 94 percent voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In last year’s special Alabama U.S. Senate election, 98 percent of African-American women voted for Democrat Doug Jones, putting him over the top in the blood-red state.

“Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party, and we can’t take that for granted. Period,” Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez said after the Alabama election.

But many black women still feel taken for granted. Many Democrats remain obsessed with winning back working-class white men and sneer at “identity politics.” There’s never been an African-American female governor in the nation. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is only the second black woman to serve in the body. And there are just 19 African-American women serving in the U.S. House.

State Rep. Sherry Gay-Dagnogo (D-Detroit), a former educator, is also running in the 13th. But she has some baggage as a fiery defender of Conyers and one of only 11 representatives to vote against a resolution calling for Michigan State University President Lou Anna Simon to resign over the Dr. Larry Nassar sexual abuse scandal.

Former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson (D-Detroit), who lost her primary bid to Conyers in 2012, is set to run again. She’ll face blowback for her job as director of government relations for the Moroun family’s Detroit International Bridge Company, whose business and environmental policies have long rankled progressives.

One of them is former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit), who just declared for the 13th and won’t be shy about banging on the Morouns or her other foes, like Duggan. She’s also a master at getting media attention. In 2016, more than a dozen protesters were tossed out of Trump’s speech at the Detroit Economic Club, but the only name anyone ever remembers is Tlaib’s.

She would be the first Muslim woman elected to Congress. But although Tlaib won three terms representing a majority African-American district in the state House, it remains to be seen if she can muster the same support for a far larger congressional seat.

Everyone is always looking for political analysts to whip out their crystal ball and definitively declare winners. That’s always a recipe for folly.

That’s especially true in the diverse 13th, which features two concurrent elections with so many candidates and dynamics. Anyone who tells you they know how this one will end is lying.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: The War Over Gerrymandering Has Just Begun

You can’t really pick an issue that’s more inside baseball than gerrymandering. And yet remarkably, this has inspired the most genuine grassroots political effort I’ve seen in Michigan.

Before Christmas, a group called Voters Not Politicians turned in 425,000 signatures for a ballot initiative that would create an independent citizen commission to draw legislative districts in Michigan instead of the Legislature. The group will need 315,654 of those signatures to be valid in order to get the measure on the 2018 ballot.

You’d think most non-political junkies never think twice about gerrymandering, which establishes an advantage for a political party by manipulating district boundaries.

But you’d be wrong.

The playbook for getting questions on the Michigan ballot is well-established. First, raise $1 million. (With Gov. Snyder signing a 2016 law tightening up the timeframe for the signature-gathering process, banking $2 million in advance is helpful). Then you pay people to circulate petitions across the state, an arduous process.

Voters Not Politicians broke the rules. They raised about $130,000 as of August and launched an all-volunteer effort, finding folks lining up to sign petitions from Detroit to Holland and everywhere in between.

Many of the petition circulators had never attended a political rally or a party meeting. But crusading against gerrymandering — which might seem to be the ultimate pie-in-the-sky effort — has attracted people from across the political spectrum who want more of a say in their government.

In other words, Voters Not Politicians has become what the Clean Michigan Government part-time legislature effort launched by Lt. Gov. Brian Calley advertised itself as being: A groundswell of regular people sick of politics and government as usual. That petition drive, in contrast, has been plagued with problems and was turned over to far-right ideologues Tom McMillin and Dave Agema after it served its true purpose, launching Calley’s 2018 gubernatorial bid.

Here’s how the current redistricting process currently works. After each decennial census, the Michigan Legislature is charged with redrawing the boundaries for the state House, state Senate and Congress based on shifts in population. And the governor has to sign the new plan.

So in the case of the state Legislature, you literally have politicians being able to pick their voters. I have watched staffers go block by block to find the “right” mix of voters for their boss’ district (i.e. enough Democrats or Republicans to keep them “safe”). The first rule of redistricting is politicians protect their jobs.

It’s also a partisan process by design. For the last two redistricting cycles in 2001 and 2011, Republicans have controlled everything, as they held the governorship, both chambers of the Legislature and even had a majority on the state Supreme Court, which could be counted on to rule in favor of the GOP’s maps.

Not surprisingly, Republicans have drawn districts that favor GOP majorities in the state Legislature and Congress. It’s paid off handsomely. Consider 2014, a good Republican year in which Snyder was re-elected. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in the state House, a 27-11 majority in the state Senate and maintained their 9-5 majority in the congressional delegation.

But when Inside Michigan Politics examined statewide votes, it wasn’t exactly a red tsunami. Democrats won a majority of the statewide vote for state House races and a plurality of votes for Congress. Republicans won a narrow statewide vote majority for the state Senate.

And yet Republicans ended up with bone-crushing majorities in all three bodies. That was by design.

It’s true that some areas are heavily Republican, like Allegan County, or overwhelmingly Democratic, like Detroit. It’s impossible to draw competitive districts there and it wouldn’t represent voters to do so. However, it would be pretty painless to draw dozens more districts that didn’t favor one party or the other. But right now, there’s little incentive — from either party — to do so.

Voters Not Politicians proposes a process controlled by a 13-member body would be composed of Democrats, Republicans and independents who don’t have a stake in the outcome. After covering redistricting in Iowa, which has a similar framework, I can say that it’s not a perfect process but it’s far superior to what goes on in Michigan and other states.

Not surprisingly, Republicans have been quick to slam the ballot measure as a stalking horse for Democrats, as several board members have given to Dem candidates. Republicans feel they’ve got a good shot at running the show for the 2021 redistricting process, so if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Of course, with Democrats winning a slew of special legislative races and big victories in Virginia and New Jersey this year, that’s not exactly a guaranteed outcome. And there’s a Supreme Court case that could also upend Michigan’s redistricting process.

It wouldn’t be shocking for the GOP-controlled Legislature to try and throw a monkey wrench into anti-gerrymandering efforts. Republicans could pass a proposal of their own that would appear on the ‘18 ballot and muddy the waters, for instance.

This fight is just beginning.  

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: No Room for Pro-Choice Candidates in the GOP

Shortly after Grosse Pointe businessman Sandy Pensler announced he would run for U.S. Senate as a Republican next year, his spokesman had to quickly put out that he had “evolved” on abortion and he’s now pro-life.

Pensler had run for the same office in 1992 as a pro-choice Republican.*

I can’t speak to Pensler’s personal beliefs, which I presume are sincere. But he’s getting attacked from the far-right Faith and Freedom Coalition for his pro-choice past, anyway. And there’s no doubt that the political winds have shifted in his party.

Last year, the Grand Traverse GOP embarrassed itself by excommunicating its most famous and most successful member, former Gov. William Milliken. In addition to endorsing Democrats (expressing independent thought, the horror!), the moderate was specifically lambasted for vetoing pro-life legislation that was “contrary to the core principles of Republicans.”

As recently as the last decade, there were a smattering of pro-choice Republicans in the Michigan Legislature, like former state Sen. Shirley Johnson. But no more.

Take former state Sen. and U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek), a Catholic physician who’s personally pro-life but refused to have every vote dictated to him by Right to Life. In 2006, he lost his Republican congressional primary fight to now-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton), an outspoken pro-life preacher.

After watching what happened to Schwarz and pro-choice Republicans like former U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, ambitious Republicans have learned to toe the pro-life line. I can’t tell you how many GOP officials have told me off the record that they’re pro-choice or don’t really care about abortion, but they keep quiet, because they’d like to keep their jobs.

So it wasn’t surprising to see Mitt Romney declare he was now pro-life when he ran for president the first time in 2008. Now-President Donald Trump had the same conversion.

And now-Gov. Rick Snyder, who had bucked Right to Life by backing the ‘08 embryonic stem-cell constitutional amendment, ran in 2010 as being firmly pro-life. Although Snyder has signed a number of bills clamping down on LGBT and abortion rights, his occasional independent streak has made social conservatives apoplectic.

But that will change if Snyder is succeeded by a Republican in 2019 — whether it’s Attorney General Bill Schuette or his own lieutenant governor, Brian Calley. Bills like the Right to Life license plate will be signed into law within the first month. Count on it.  

Meanwhile, those Republicans who have stuck to their pro-choice politics have found themselves wandering in the political desert. Both Schwarz and Chafee became independents after losing their elections, with the former flirting with running for Congress in 2012 as a Democrat and the latter running for president in 2016 as one.

If there’s currently a pro-choice Republican holding office in Michigan, I’m not aware of it.

There are plenty of pro-life Democratic officials left in Michigan, however, although their numbers are shrinking. Democrats seeking higher office, like governor or U.S. Senate, are now overwhelmingly pro-choice. Former U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) would be the exception if he does jump into the ‘18 gubernatorial race, but he could suffer the same fate of pro-life former Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford), who lost badly in the ‘10 Dem primary.

There’s been a fierce debate within the party over whether to run pro-life candidates in 2018, particularly to win over voters in more conservative areas after Trump’s surprise win.

This was inflamed by Bernie Sanders endorsing a pro-life mayoral candidate Health Mello in Nebraska, but snubbing pro-choice Jon Ossoff in his Georgia congressional race. In the end, neither man won, but Dems are left to grapple with abortion as a litmus test.

You can expect this to play out in some Michigan legislative primaries next year, as Rep. Kristy Pagan (D-Canton) and others are recruiting pro-choice women, even in socially conservative areas up north and on the west side of the state. They now have a big victory under their belt with pro-choice Sara Cambensy winning this month’s special 109th state House election in the U.P.

Don’t expect pro-life Democrats to disappear from the Legislature completely. And it’s worth noting that even when Dems have run the state House — as recently as 2006 to 2010 — there was still an anti-abortion majority.

There’s no doubt that the parties are becoming more polarized on abortion. But the Dems still have a ways to go before they achieve the ideological purity that Republicans have.

*Correction: The column originally misstated Ronna Romney ran for Senate on a pro-choice platform; she did not.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Upton’s Fundraising Haul is Good, but Stabenow’s Is Great

We’re now almost a year away from the 2018 general election and the contours of some key congressional races in Michigan are starting to take shape.

If U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) is planning to retire from his 6th District perch, you couldn’t tell from his half-million dollar fundraising haul last quarter.

The 30-year congressman has emerged as a somewhat surprising Democratic target after reviving Trumpcare in the U.S. House earlier this year. His allies have repeatedly shot down rumors that he’ll forgo re-election.

Now if Upton wants to run for U.S. Senate next year, he still has his work cut out for him, as incumbent Debbie Stabenow pulled in $1.7 million in the third quarter. The former U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee chair’s $1.1 million in the bank is impressive, but pales in comparison to Stabenow’s almost $7 million war chest.

U.S. Senate candidates typically jump in by now, given the enormous fundraising required to run. The GOP field is already fairly crowded, and includes former Michigan Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young and Iraq war veteran John James.

But Upton, an heir to the Whirlpool fortune known for posting enviable campaign finance reports, has the luxury of getting in late. Chatter about his Senate candidacy reached a fever pitch just before the Republican Mackinac Leadership Conference last month, but the veteran congressman still hasn’t showed his hand.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s most vulnerable incumbent, U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), probably wasn’t happy to discover he’d raised almost $100,000 less than his most prominent 8th District challenger, former Defense Department Assistant Secretary Elissa Slotkin.

She was part of an elite group of challengers who outraised 11 incumbents in the last period. That’s a feat that Haley Stevens, chief of staff for former President Obama’s Auto Task Force, achieved in the second quarter against U.S. Rep. Dave Trott (R-Birmingham) in the 11th District.

He’s since announced his retirement, opening the door for a flurry of candidates on both sides of the aisle to either enter the race or flirt with it. Most didn’t have to file campaign finance reports yet, but it’s notable that another Democrat who declared before Trott bowed out, former Detroit Immigration Office Director Fayrouz Saad, actually raised more than Stevens in the last period.

Although Trott unsurprisingly raised only about $20,000 in the third quarter, he has roughly a quarter-million dollars left in the bank, which he could use to fund his favored successor and other targeted Republicans.

Another congressman who didn’t collect much cash last period was former Ways and Means Committee Chair Sandy Levin (D-Southfield), who raised $17,000. Levin, who’s been in Congress since 1983 and represents the 9th District, has taken in just under $100,000 for the cycle.

Levin is considered untouchable — he occupies a safe Democratic seat with a 61.4 percent base, per Inside Michigan Politics, and it would be a suicide mission for any Dem who primaried him. But he’s long been the subject of retirement rumors and hasn’t said if he’ll run again in 2018. Naturally, Levin’s latest fundraising has only fueled speculation.

There’s no shortage of Democrats who could run to succeed him, including state Sen. Steve Bieda (D-Warren), former state Rep. Sarah Roberts (D-Saint Clair Shores) and Andy Levin, the congressman’s son who is a former Gov. Jennifer Granholm administration official.

Of course, money isn’t everything in a campaign — messaging, strategy and national political winds can be key. But at this stage of the cycle, fundraising remains one of the better ways to gauge races.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Can Michigan Democrats Rebound as Trump Abandons Economic Populism?

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump often told adoring crowds that the “system is rigged” and “I alone can fix it.”

He stumped as a different kind of Republican, with a blend of nativism and populism that helped him crack the Upper Midwest code and win the presidency. Afterward, Stephen Moore, a once-staunch economic conservative who founded the Club for Growth, shocked many by declaring that the GOP is a “populist worker-class party now.”

U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), who warned early on that Trump could win Michigan, told Inside Michigan Politics that he tapped into working-class fears about free trade and spiraling retirement costs. She spends countless hours at town halls and community events in her district — which spans Dearborn, Ann Arbor and Downriver — and says the anger and anxiety is still there.

“The American people are worried about their lives. They’re worried about their jobs. They’re worried about the safety of their neighborhoods, about whether they can go to the doctor,” she said in an interview last month.

Since becoming president, Trump has gone all-in on the nativist part of the equation. He’s tried to institute his “Muslim ban,” proposed severe limits for legal immigration, threatened to shut down the government this month if he doesn’t get money for his wall with Mexico, and has been widely criticized for failing to condemn white supremacist violence.

But Trump has offered precious little economic populism — which is what many pundits would at least like to believe is how he won Rust Belt states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Instead of kicking off his agenda with a big infrastructure package — which probably would have attracted Democratic support — Trump went all-in on repealing Obamacare. And House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) cut Dems out of the process, seeking a complete GOP victory.

As of now, health care repeal is dead and the president remains livid, periodically tweeting slams of McConnell.

Trump is now trying to pivot to his tax plan, which he announced at Missouri campaign-style rally this week (interesting timing, as Hurricane Harvey continues to batter Texas).

His rhetoric may still be populist, but his plan — at least what we know about — looks awfully similar to what Republicans have been proposing for the last 30 years. Trump wants to cut the corporate tax rate and the rate for the top income bracket.

And many working-class families would see a tax increase, as Trump wants to end the head-of-household deduction for single parents. That sounds a lot more like religious right-inspired social engineering than blue-collar economic populism.

Trump’s abandonment of populism and dismal approval ratings could create an opening in 2018 for Democrats, if fissures between the far-left Bernie Sanders faction and mainstream Dems don’t doom the party, as they did in 2016.

As for Dingell, she believes Democrats also have to “take control of the trade issue,” which is particularly important for Michigan, home of the domestic auto industry. She’s not sure what will come out of Trump’s promises to renegotiate NAFTA.

“I said to him from the very beginning: ‘Mr. President, if there’s something that will help the working men and women in my district, I’ll work with you. And if you’re going to do anything to hurt ‘em, I’m going to fight you tooth and nail,’” Dingell told IMP.

So far, Trump hasn’t offered much to help working-class folks in Dingell’s district or any other and polling shows their patience is wearing thin. It would certainly be ironic if the very voters who pushed Trump over the top in ‘16 ended up costing Republicans big-time in 2018.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Republicans Root for a U.P. Upset

In November 2009, Republicans were on suicide watch, both nationally and in Michigan.

President Barack Obama had won the ‘08 election with an almost 10 million-vote margin and still enjoyed a healthy approval rating a year later. Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, including a 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. And the Dems had won several special congressional elections.

In Michigan, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm had the help of a huge majority in the House (67-43) and the Dems had an 8-7 congressional advantage. The one bright spot for the GOP was the Senate, which they’d controlled for 25 years. With the ascension of Sen. Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) to Congress, the GOP had a 21-16 edge.

The special Nov. 3, 2009, election to fill Schauer’s slot wasn’t a terribly exciting affair, but it was a huge morale boost for once-dejected Republicans (yes, there was singing on the Senate floor the next day).

Former Rep. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) decisively beating Rep. Marty Griffin (D-Jackson) became a bellwether for the 2010 election cycle. Not only did Griffin go on to lose his House seat, but the GOP ran the table, winning the governorship, a 9-5 advantage in Congress, a 63-47 majority in the House and a 26-12 supermajority in the Senate.

Republicans also flipped the U.S. House and came close in the upper chamber, effectively stalling Obama’s agenda. And the GOP scored big in other key states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia, which proved invaluable during the decennial redistricting process.

Eight years later, President Donald Trump has a GOP Congress and Republicans still control everything in Michigan. Now Democrats are hoping for history to repeat itself in 2018 with the president’s party getting pounded in the midterms. Having a Democratic governor going into the next redistricting is the ultimate prize in Michigan.

But Republicans see another scenario. And it starts with another special legislative election this November, one that’s largely been overlooked in the Upper Peninsula.

Many Republicans believe ‘16 was a sea change in our state, with Trump’s stunning victory finally pushing us to red (or at least reddish-purple) status. Michigan is getting older and is less educated than most states. We don’t have a significant, growing Latino population. All these demographic trends bode well for the GOP.

Republicans also have favorably gerrymandered legislative maps to fall back on. And they’ve also made big gains in key areas like the U.P., the northern lower peninsula and Macomb County, which should help them mitigate or even withstand even a powerful blue wave tearing through the legislative map.

And Republicans are making noise about coming for three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), openly praying that hometown sensation Kid Rock is serious about running and not just trying to sell concert tickets and merch.

Michigan has a special place in Trump’s heart, as it’s one of the three Rust Belt states that flipped to put him in the White House. And Republican National Committee Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel, a Michigan native, can also be expected to spread the love in terms of money and surrogates.

So the GOP is somewhat optimistic that they’ll be insulated from the historic precedent of the president’s party taking a hit in off-year elections.

But to get things off on the right foot, they’d love to steal what looks like a safe Democratic seat. The 109th in the central U.P., which includes Marquette, Ishpeming and Manistique, has a 56.9% Democratic base, according to Inside Michigan Politics.

The seat is open because Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette) tragically killed himself after being stopped for drunken driving. This week, Sara Cambensy, a former Marquette city commissioner, won the Dem special primary. She’ll face Republican Rich Rossway, president of the Marquette school board, in the Nov. 7 special general election.

GOP strategists are excited about Rossway, a 17-year veteran of the board with strong ties to the community. Interestingly, he’s adopting the tactic used by many a Democrat in red-trending or socially conservative areas (like Griffin did) and isn’t stressing his party label. Instead, Rossway has been playing up his bipartisan credentials and making the case that he’ll put the U.P.’s needs before partisan concerns.

Republicans also see an opening because the Cambensy barely pulled off a win on Aug. 8. Last year, she also primaried Kivela, who was a beloved figure, which left some Dems with a bad taste in their mouths.

If Rossway scores a Trump-like upset, that gives the GOP another vote in the state House. As the Dems are expected to maintain the 1st District seat in Detroit and Harper Woods on Nov. 7, that would bring the GOP to a bone-crushing 64-46 advantage.

But flipping the 109th is bigger than that. It’s about changing the narrative about 2018 in Michigan and demoralizing Democrats, who have seen an influx of new energy from both the Indivisible and Bernie Sanders “Our Revolution” groups.

Republican operatives, no doubt, are already auditioning clever soundbites about how the Dems should just pack it in for good in Michigan.

It’s a longshot for sure. But for Republicans, it doesn’t hurt to dream.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Republicans Hope Kid Rock Is for Real

Donald Trump is president. So of course, Kid Rock can be the next U.S. senator from Michigan.

That’s the argument pundits and Republicans are essentially making after the Macomb County rock star released a website teasing the prospect (with merch, natch). And it may be correct.

As I told the Washington Post earlier this month, I would have laughed at the idea of Senator Rock in 2015. But I got plenty wrong about Trump and the 2016 election and it’s always worth reconsidering data points and assumptions.

Of course, there’s also a danger in overlearning the lessons of the last election and assuming the next one will take place under identical circumstances (which never happens).

Anyway, here’s why Republicans (and the D.C. media) are so pumped about a Kid Rock candidacy for 2018.

The first reason is the breathless media coverage it would inspire (and already has). There’s nothing like a local-boy-made-good story and the “Cowboy” singer, who still has deep roots in the Mitten State, provides that in spades (even if he doesn’t have an inspiring rags-to-riches story, having grown up in what Politico describes as an “immense, 18-room, 5,628-square-foot estate”).

Sure, Trump frequently flings irascible tweets about certain reporters and the “failing New York Times.” And a new Economist poll shows 45 percent of Republicans favor the courts shutting down media outlets for “biased or inaccurate stories (buh-bye, First Amendment). But Republicans still crave positive mainstream media coverage for all their bluster. And thus far, there’s been plenty for Kid Rock.

Plus, the right-wing media is always happy to step in and provide a boost. As Daily Caller writer Scott Greer tweeted, “Let's face it: we all want Kid Rock to run for office.”

This calculation is undoubtedly correct. Suddenly, Michigan’s once-boring U.S. Senate race, where popular three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) was expected to wipe the floor with any GOP challenger, will become The Most Interesting Race in the Country.

Now many longtime Republicans have pointed out that other candidates running, like former Michigan Supreme Court Judge Bob Young and businessman John James, are far more qualified, so this lopsided coverage wouldn’t fair. That’s the same argument the 15 other presidential hopefuls made about Trump, however, which was also correct — but many in the media, especially ratings-driven cable TV executives, didn’t care.

That’s why most Republicans believe Kid Rock would be the odds-on favorite in a GOP primary — overpowering Young, James and former Michigan Trump campaign co-chair Lena Epstein (who was banking on the president’s support) — and make the general a nail-biter.

However, the superstar could always just be toying with a run to juice his long-declining album sales. And of course, should he actually take the plunge, he’ll appear as “Robert Ritchie” on the ballot, which means his campaign will have to spend time and money making his two monikers synonymous with voters.

The second reason why Republicans are urging Kid Rock to run is that they're eager to see if Trump’s politically incorrect celebrity schtick can work down-ballot.

Like the president, Kid Rock has had his share of personal drama, from his sex tape to divorcing Pamela Anderson (a former Playboy Playmate best known for hers), and a racking up a few assault charges along the way. But the theory is that if Trump’s crudeness didn’t cost him with voters, especially the once-uptight religious right, Kid Rock will glide by in his U.S. Senate race.

Relatedly, Republicans believe that Kid Rock will cause (white) blue-collar voters to swamp the polls like they would for a free concert. The idea is that this will eat away at Stabenow’s base, which is more rural than that of other Dems, thanks to her farming roots. And the GOP will duplicate Trump’s narrow 2016 win in Michigan. Of course, Trump's poll numbers in the state have slid since then.

This week, the White House said the quiet part out loud to the press and admitted Trump’s surprise tweets announcing a transgender ban in the military was all about politics. “This forces Democrats in Rust Belt states like Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, to take complete ownership of this issue,” an official bragged to Axios. (Thus far, this doesn’t seem like a smashing success, as even staunch conservatives like U.S. Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) have criticized the move).

But the GOP knows that 2018 looks to be a Democratic year for two reasons: Their massively unpopular Trumpcare policy and the historic precedent of the party in the White House taking a hit in midterm elections.

The situation could be more dire in Michigan, as Republicans have controlled every branch of government since 2011 and voters start to get twitchy. Michigan also still trends blue in federal races and Stabenow is an excellent candidate, from her stellar fundraising to tireless time on the stump.

This all underscores something that’s been overlooked in all the Kid Rock ruckus. After Trump scored his shocking upset in Michigan last year, there was all sorts of chest-thumping from Republicans that we were a red state now and Stabenow was toast in ‘18.

But as Republicans revealed to Politico, Kid Rock represents a hail Mary pass, as  Stabenow has “devoured her last two challengers and will almost certainly make it three in a row if Republicans run another traditional campaign.”

So Kid Rock could be for real and there’s a shot he could win. But the enthusiasm for his candidacy belies some real fundamental weaknesses in Michigan for the GOP.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Whitmer vs. El-Sayed Could Be Clinton vs. Sanders All over Again

A few months ago, it looked like the only thing standing in Gretchen Whitmer’s way was Dan Kildee.

Whitmer, a Democratic former state Senate minority leader, leapt into the 2018 gubernatorial sweepstakes just after the New Year, while hopefuls in both parties were still issuing (not very convincing) denials about running. Most politicos (myself included) expected Kildee to get in, as the congressman has kept a very high profile during the Flint water crisis.

But even as Kildee has continued to waver between keeping a safe U.S. House seat and taking the plunge for state CEO, a new threat is emerging to Whitmer’s nomination.

And it’s coming from a very unlikely place.

When Dr. Abdul El-Sayed announced he was running for governor back in February, even Democratic insiders had to Google him. Sure, some people knew him from his work running the Detroit Health Department under Mayor Mike Duggan or from his Crain’s “40 Under 40” profile, but that was about it. He was 32, had never run for office and didn’t appear to be very politically active.

The last part was confirmed last week on WKAR’s “Off the Record,” when El-Sayed admitted he didn’t even vote in the 2016 presidential primary. But he did tell the panel that he would have voted for Bernie Sanders, who pulled out an upset win against Hillary Clinton.

And that helps explain why there’s growing grassroots enthusiasm for the man who would become the nation’s first Muslim governor. This isn’t readily apparent to those in Lansing, many of whom have known Whitmer for decades and have assumed she’s a lock.

But a lot of activists, particularly millennials, are psyched about El-Sayed. They like that he’s an outsider who’s never run for office. While plenty of Democratic lawmakers — particularly women — took offense when El-Sayed openly scoffed on OTR at Whitmer’s 14-plus years in the Legislature, many voters don’t consider political experience to be an asset anymore. Those on the far right and far left view holding elected office as a corrupting force.

It’s true that it’s hard to get to Whitmer’s left. She’s probably best known for her pro-choice and pro-LGBT views. But those positions are a given with the Democratic base. What a lot of activists are looking for is candidates who campaign on Bernie’s platform of slamming Wall Street and getting money out of politics. Outsiders like El-Sayed are in a better position to sell that agenda.

El-Sayed is busy making moves to show he’s for real. He’s been traveling the state and said on OTR that he’s raised $500,000 already, which isn’t chump change. And he’s hired a veteran campaign manager in Max Glass, who worked for Sanders favorite U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii).

The biggest question in the Democratic gubernatorial primary has always been where Sanders voters would go. In a Kildee vs. Whitmer contest, that wasn’t readily apparent, as both are establishment figures who served as Clinton surrogates. But if Kildee sits this one out, the Dem gubernatorial primary could morph into Sanders vs. Clinton, Part II, between El-Sayed and Whitmer.

This is a scenario that causes many Whitmer backers and political insiders to roll their eyes. She’s expected to clean up with money and endorsements. She hails from a political family and has an experienced team. He’s the longest of longshots as a religious minority who nobody’s heard of.

Of course, those are all arguments that people made in the ‘16 Michigan presidential primary.

It’s way too early to predict an El-Sayed Sanders-style upset next year. We’re 15 months out and the field isn’t even set. But it would be arrogant to dismiss the idea out of hand.

If 2016’s surprises didn’t teach you to question your political assumptions, I can’t really help you.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Will Dems Take Advantage of Trump Stumbling in Michigan?

President Trump has been in office for three months, and Michiganders aren’t exactly basking in the glow of all the “winning” he promised he’d deliver.

The Republican won Michigan last fall by a plurality of roughly 10,000 votes. By February — in what’s supposed to be the post-inauguration honeymoon period — 56 percent of Michigan voters in an EPIC-MRA poll disapproved of his job performance.

Trump’s popularity was underwater, as well, with 51 percent viewing him unfavorably. (In contrast, his predecessor, Barack Obama, enjoyed 59 percent favorability in the survey). And 55 percent already didn’t believe Trump would end up being a good president, with 41 percent saying he’ll be a poor one.

Michigan isn’t an outlier. Trump’s national job approval is hanging around 51 percent negative and his unfavorables are around 52 percent.

And Trump is taking the GOP down with him, with the party’s numbers sinking rapidly. You can already see warning signs for Republicans in 2018 with how they’re fighting like crazy to keep safe red congressional seats in Kansas and Georgia special elections.

Michigan Democrats should smell blood in the water. This would seem to be the time to go on offense against an unpopular president and try to tie local Republicans to him every chance they get.

Republicans have controlled every branch of government in Michigan for the last six years and have done a skillful job gerrymandering congressional and legislative districts to make it easier to stay in power. Democrats are facing enormous odds in 2018 and need a strong message and target. Trump appears ready to make their job a lot easier.

But it seems that a lot of folks aren’t sure what to do. Many Democratic politicians, especially those representing areas Trump won, don’t want to talk about him much, despite his slipping poll numbers.

You’d expect a full-on assault against “Trumpcare,” given the GOP’s shockingly unpopular health care plans. Republicans started hammering the Affordable Care Act as “Obamacare” long before the bill was even written. And they were relentless in their attacks, which paid off big-time in the 2010, 2014 and 2016 congressional elections.

Obamacare never polled particularly well, although now it’s on the upswing, as people fear their coverage will be snatched away. But from a political standpoint, you have to give Republicans credit for their doggedness in attacking the ACA (facts often be damned), which certainly drove its unpopularity up.

Even today, Republicans aren’t afraid to champion issues that poll terribly, like being against background checks for gun purchases and backing tax cuts for the rich. It helps that their most passionate supporters have their back.

But the fact that they’re willing to stand up for certain ideas, even those that are unpopular, helps them portray themselves as principled, strong leaders. Those are very appealing qualities to swing voters, who vote on emotion and personality far more than issues.

Many Democrats rarely stick their necks out on issues that are closely divided or underwater in the polls. That’s why it took so long for the party to come around on same-sex marriage. That’s why Michigan Democrats barely campaigned on Right to Work during the 2014 election, even though the GOP power grab had inspired thousands to show up for last-minute protests in the dead of winter.

Stressing policies that are popular may seem like smart messaging. But you also forfeit the chance to convince people you’re right on the issues, like the GOP did with their relentless campaign against Obamacare.

And it reinforces the idea that Democrats aren’t willing to stick to their guns. That’s not helpful for independents and it’s demoralizing for the base.

It’s one reason why Bernie Sanders, whose far-left ideas will probably always put him outside the political mainstream, inspired such a devoted following. He seemed principled. He seemed like the real deal, someone who would never sell out what he believed in. Never underestimate how appealing that is for voters.

There’s also been some muddled messaging from Dems about working with Trump on some potential areas of agreement, like on trade and infrastructure. Of course, that’s a great way to disillusion your Resistance-loving, Women’s March-going base, which regards the president as the anti-Christ. And those are the passionate folks you’re going to need to turn the state blue — or at least purple — in ‘18.

At this point in his first term, Obama was immensely popular and viewed as a transformational figure as the first African-American president. That didn’t stop Republicans from trying to block everything he did, from the stimulus to the ACA. And they embraced their far-right base, the nascent Tea Party, which fueled the angry backlash to Obama in the ‘10 midterm elections.

That would seem to be a pretty decent blueprint for Democrats heading into ‘18. At any rate, it’s hard to imagine that strategy making things any worse for the party than they are right now.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: A Déjà Vu Debate: The Trump-Clinton Slugfest Has Echoes of DeVos Vs. Granholm

During her final debate in 2006 against billionaire businessman Dick DeVos, then-Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm unloaded a memorable zinger that ended up defining the race.

“You’re an expert yachtsman,” the embattled Democratic incumbent tartly began, adding that his philosophy was “each man for himself.”

But the effectiveness of Granholm’s attack wasn’t just slamming DeVos as an out-of-touch rich guy. The key was moving on to framing the election. The governor called herself the “captain of the ship” and declared, “We are all in this boat together.”

This wasn’t even Granholm’s best debate performance or her best line. But it summed up the stakes of the election for voters. Granholm would go onto to win re-election a few weeks later by a whopping 14 points, even though the state was suffering through its sixth year of recession.

And on Monday night, she was in the audience for a different slugfest between her longtime friend, Hillary Clinton, and another billionaire (at least, allegedly), Donald Trump. Granholm, who was termed out of office in 2010, is now co-chairing the Clinton transition team and a favorite for a cabinet slot or Democratic National Committee chair.  

Trump has bragged that only he has the business acumen to fix the country. And while we’re not in recession, the Republican nominee routinely describes an America that resembles a dystopian hellscape.

So Granholm must have had some sense of déjà vu as the debate unfolded.

Now Trump was a much more aggressive and disrespectful debater than DeVos, interrupting her 51 times in his quest to be Mansplainer-In-Chief. His rambling, ranting and raving was so over-the-top at times that “Saturday Night Live” writers are probably flummoxed as to how to parody it.

And Clinton isn’t nearly as polished a debater as Granholm, as her early stumble through the canned line, “Trumped-up, trickle-down economics” shows.

Trump fired off his share of attacks, such as, “You’re telling the enemy everything you want to do. No wonder you've been fighting ISIS your entire adult life.” Of course, none of this is true, starting with the fact that the Islamic State isn’t 50 years old. But it probably fired up supporters who routinely shout, “Lock her up!” at his rallies.

The problem is alpha-male performance art, punctuated by frequent falsehoods, only holds appeals for his most loyal supporters. Undecided voters and soft Clinton supporters didn’t buy what he was selling, as the CNN poll showed.

The primary challenge in debates is to come off as presidential. Voters need to be comfortable waking up on Nov. 9 knowing this will be the person in the Oval Office armed with the nuclear launch codes. It’s usually not about issues –– the way a candidate talks about issues is largely just telegraphing his or her values.

Donald Trump failed the commander-in-chief test in Round 1 in such a way that it will be hard to bounce back –– and look authentic. More importantly, Hillary Clinton easily vaulted over the high bar set for her.

She didn’t do it with clever quips. She did it by serenely smiling through Trump’s attacks and interruptions. She did it through demonstrating her policy expertise. Voters may not recall her answer on cybersecurity, but they know she grasped the issue as a president should (and didn’t tout her 10-year-old’s computer skills like Trump).

Clinton was the Iron Lady, our own Margaret Thatcher. And she did manage to distill the election, not through a zinger, but in her own steady, wonky voice:

“I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate. And yes I did. And you know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president. And I think that’s a good thing.”

Somewhere in the audience, you can bet Jennifer Granholm was smiling.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.