Susan J. Demas: Another GOP Stabenow Challenger Bites the Dust

What a difference a year makes. And U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) probably couldn’t be happier.

This week, yet another one of her high-profile opponents, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young, bowed out. The Harvard alum known for his erudite eviscerations from the bench had tried to metamorphose into an angry Trump acolyte, from his Facebook Live announcement in which he yelled about being “the disruptor” to his cringey slogan, “Bow Tie. Bad Ass.”

It was like if William F. Buckley suddenly tried to transform himself into Vanilla Ice. And it didn’t work.

Young follows in the footsteps of Lena Epstein, a Trump surrogate who decided her talents would be best used in an open metro Detroit congressional seat. And of course, U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) and rap/rock star Kid Rock never pulled the trigger, despite considerable hype.

That leaves the GOP field with three candidates: John James, an Iraq war veteran and political newcomer; businessman Sandy Pensler; and historic preservationist Bob Carr.

President Trump’s numbers have tumbled in Michigan. Our Senate election hasn’t even cracked the top 10 races in 2018. And more and more analysts are predicting a national Democratic wave next year.

Stabenow, who’s sitting on a $7 million war chest, probably isn’t shaking in her boots — but she’ll run like someone who’s 20 points behind. That’s just the Stabenow way.

But let’s remember that at the onset of 2017, Republicans were riding high. Trump had just become the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988, pushing him over the top in the Electoral College. And victory was all the sweeter since even many conservatives had resigned themselves to four years of another Democratic president.

So Republicans were feeling buoyant about 2018. They’d already had an impressive run since 2011, controlling the governor’s mansion, attorney general’s office, secretary of state’s domain, state House, state Senate, state Supreme Court and congressional delegation. And most GOP strategists expected the good times to keep on rolling through the next election, especially as Michigan was Trump country now.

They even set their sights on the most powerful Democrat in the state, something that had seemed laughable before Nov. 8, 2016. I’d even written a column in the fall of 2015 with this lead: “Every six years, Michigan Republicans get to play their least-favorite game: Who wants to lose to Debbie Stabenow?”

Consider the electoral history of Michigan’s senior senator. Stabenow won the seat in 2000 by coming from behind to knock out incumbent Spencer Abraham, who Republicans had thought was a lock. Since then, she’s dispatched both her challengers, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, by double digits.

The three-term senator is the once (and perhaps future) Senate Agriculture Chair, as she’s never lost touch with her farm roots in Clare. Nobody outworks her and she’s always a prodigious fundraiser.

But as Republican powerbrokers eagerly awaited President Trump’s inauguration, they tittered that Stabenow’s time was finally up.

Some dejected Democrats worried they were right and confided that if the GOP could oust Stabenow, that would be the death knell for the party in Michigan. The state’s other Democratic senator, freshman Gary Peters, would be toast in 2020 and nobody with a “D” after their name would ever win anything again.

If there’s one thing that Democrats excel at, it’s dreaming up elaborate Chicken Little scenarios.

Republicans began jumping into the ‘18 Senate race with abandon. But everyone was overshadowed by the prospect of Kid Rock teasing a run, with even former White House senior adviser Steve Bannon reportedly wooing him.

The national media nearly collectively lost their mind, spinning cliché-strewn stories and tweets about how the hardscrabble Macomb County kid (who grew up in a sprawling mansion) would capture the hearts of all the hard hats at the Warren bowling alleys and become the Donald Trump of the Senate.

After exploiting everyone’s credulousness and selling out some concerts, Kid Rock went on “The Howard Stern Show” last fall and almost admirably declared, “F--- no, I’m not running for Senate; are you kidding me?”

By then, Epstein had already dropped out of the Senate race to pursue the seat left open by the retirement of U.S. Rep. Dave Trott (R-Birmingham).* But at least she left behind the gift that keeps on giving, a deliciously awkward 55-second YouTube video titled, “Lena Epstein Welcomes Kid Rock 2 the Party,” complete with her flashing a Sarah Palin-style wink.

Upton took a pass on the race before Thanksgiving (thankfully before he had to degrade himself on social media). And now Young has taken his badass bowtie and gone home.

As it stands now, Republicans find themselves in the familiar position of trying to coalesce around a less-than ideal nominee, kicking in some cash and hoping against hope that Stabenow slips up.

They could always get lucky in 2018. But not too many would take those odds.

* Party affiliation corrected.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Democrats Now Have a Road Map for 2018

Democrats smashed all expectations on Tuesday, racking up key election wins across the country. To make victory even sweeter, this was almost a year to the date from when Donald Trump shocked progressives by conquering the presidency.

Indeed, the news was so bad for Republicans that Fox News barely covered the results and the only election Trump referenced on Twitter was the one in 2016.

The year after a presidential election, the marquee races are for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and Virginia governor. On Tuesday, Democrats won the trifecta — and no election was even close, even as pundits declared they’d “blown it” in Virginia.

These elections have long been considered a barometer for what to expect in the midterms. As of now, everything seems to be coming up roses for the Dems.

In 2009, a year after Barack Obama’s first victory, Republicans took both gubernatorial races. Mike Bloomberg switched that year from being a Republican to an independent and won a third term as New York mayor.

And in Michigan, Republicans triumphed in a special state Senate race that year. As I’ve noted, the victory of now-Sen. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) was a harbinger of the GOP tsunami in 2010, when the party won the governorship, a 9-5 advantage in Congress, a 63-47 majority in the House and a 26-12 supermajority in the Senate.

The result of the special state House race Tuesday in the 109th district to replace the late Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette) might not seem as dramatic. Democrats held an Upper Peninsula seat with a solid 56.9 percent Democratic base, per Inside Michigan Politics — one that’s been in their hands for more than a half-century. But it’s also a district that Trump won last year and the U.P. has been trending red since 2010.

Democrats were nervous, especially after Trump’s upset in Michigan a year ago. But despite Republicans’ best efforts — running Rich Rossway, a well-funded moderate who courted unions — Democrat Sara Cambensy won by 14 points.

The Dems’ enthusiasm is a great sign for 2018. That’s what they need if they want to flip the state House, which is split 63-47 in the GOP’s favor, and/or capture the big prize of the governor’s mansion. Either way, the Dems would regain a foothold in shaping the state’s agenda — and in the all-important 2021 redistricting process.

It’s significant that Cambensy won in spite deep divisions in the party. Republicans tried to exploit them, arguing the pro-choice Cambensy was too liberal for the district and pointing out that she’d primaried the popular Kivela last year. Nothing stuck.

The GOP attacks against Democrat Ralph Northam in the Virginia gubernatorial race also fell flat. Pundits speculated that menacing ads (which warned the Dem would let international MS-13 killers run wild in the state) would be the death knell for Northam. But he won the race handily.

Since Trump’s surprise victory last year, the media have been obsessed with white working-class voters who flipped to him. Democrats have been mired in debates about how to win those voters back, which has, at times, slighted women and people of color.

I’ve noted that a sect of Michigan Democrats has been focused on finding a white male gubernatorial candidate for months. They fervently believe that the only way for Dems to win back the governor’s mansion is with a “safe” nominee after Trump flipped Michigan last year.

The current field includes frontrunner former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Detroit Health Department head who would be the nation’s first Muslim governor. There’s also businessman Shri Thanedar, who immigrated from India, and former executive Bill Cobbs, who’s African-American.

But Tuesday’s results don’t support the premise that Dems must adopt a defensive crouch and find the “Great White Male Hope,” starting with Cambensy’s victory in the U.P. She certainly wasn’t the safe choice for Democrats to nominate and yet she shattered expectations.

In Virginia, a trans journalist defeated the homophobic author of the “bathroom bill” in a state House race. The chamber also got its first Asian female and Latina members. And the boyfriend of a reporter killed on live TV defeated an NRA-backed candidate on a gun-control platform.

Charlotte, N.C., elected its first black female mayor and six other cities elected their first black mayors. Both of the new lieutenant governors in New Jersey and Virginia are African-American. An African-American woman beat a local New Jersey official who had posted a meme wondering if the Women’s March activists would be “over in time for them to cook dinner.”

And after enduring a campaign marked by “Don’t let TERRORISM take over our town!” fliers, Hoboken, N.J., elected its first Sikh mayor.

If you’re looking for a common thread, it would be that so many of these rising political stars are passionate about America as they see it — a beautiful, messy, diverse republic where anyone should be able to make it. Sure, it’s a rebuke of Trump, who’s fond of describing our nation as a dystopian hellscape. But it’s also a pretty appealing and uplifting message.

And even if you don’t buy the message, you can’t deny the candidates’ passion. That’s a quality that can’t be manufactured and wins races — which is exactly what Democrats need in 2018.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.
 

Susan J. Demas: Trump, Snyder Could Drag Down GOP in 2018

Michigan Republicans are facing some ugly political winds in 2018.

Recent polling shows that Gov. Rick Snyder’s numbers remain dismal — and only look good in comparison to those of President Donald Trump.

In fact, EPIC-MRA found in its Aug. 27-Sept. 1 poll that 53 percent of likely ‘18 voters worry about Trump having access to the nuclear launch codes and 43 percent believe he’s a “mentally unstable person.”

And NBC/Marist had in its Aug. 13-17 survey that 62 percent said the new president “embarrassed” them and 59 percent said Trump’s decisions have “weakened the global image of the United States.”

Those are some jaw-dropping numbers for the GOP to contend with in ‘18, especially as every election cycle since 2006 has been dominated by national, top-of-the-ticket concerns.

We’re still more than a year away from the election. As we saw in 2016, the political landscape can change dramatically and conventional wisdom can be proved a farce. And Republicans have some key advantages in Michigan: a deep bench, generally good economy, favorable legislative maps for down-ballot races, and strong fundraising, aided by ever-laxer campaign finance laws.

Still, the fundamental question for any political party before an election is: Would you rather be us or them?

Right now, Democrats have some big positives in election fundamentals with poll numbers, an ignited liberal activist base, and voter fatigue after almost eight years of Republican rule in Michigan — and now they have total control in Washington.

Let’s drill down into some recent statewide surveys. Michigan has been a source of endless national fascination after giving Trump a narrow win last year, which helped put him over the top in the Electoral College. That was after Democratic nominees, win or lose, had won Michigan every cycle since 1988. Former President Obama’s margins of victory were 16 points in 2008 and almost 10 points in 2012.

So Trump’s 2016 victory in the Mitten State appeared to be a sea change.

But in poll after poll, indicates that Michigan’s infatuation with Trump was short-lived. His job approval sat at 62 percent negative in the EPIC-MRA survey. And when asked who was a more effective leader as president, 56 percent said Obama and only 32 percent answered Trump.

NBC/Marist had the new president with a 55 percent negative job approval rating. They also polled the other two Rust Belt states that flipped to Trump, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where his job approval was at 56 percent and 54 percent negative, respectively.

Snyder’s job approval was 57 percent negative in the EPIC-MRA poll. He’s the fifth most unpopular governor in the country, according to a July roundup from Morning Consult.

His numbers have been in the dumps since the Flint water crisis made international headlines in late 2015, but the governor has languished in negative territory for much of his tenure. Snyder managed to win re-election in 2014 anyway.

So if Snyder and Trump continue to post brutal numbers next year, Republicans can always hope that even some demoralized and disgusted voters will mark their ballots for them in 2018, just as they’ve done in years past.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Schuette Wants To Be the Change Michigan Believes in

If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought Barack Obama was still president based on Attorney General Bill Schuette’s speech this week announcing his 2018 gubernatorial campaign.

And if I really wasn’t paying attention, I may have assumed that Jennifer Granholm was still the governor of Michigan, even though she left the Romney Building in 2010.

Schuette mentioned both Democrats no less than eight times apiece in his roughly 20-minute oratory delivered in his hometown of Midland, a picturesque mid-Michigan hamlet he lovingly wrote about in his 2015 book, Big Lessons from a Small Town.

As I noted back in March, Obama was the perfect foil for Schuette. The Republican AG cast himself as a “rule of law” conservative, frequently joining lawsuits against the administration’s “overreaching” agenda, including overtime rules, the contraception mandate and Obamacare.

And so when Schuette came under fire for his right-wing positions, like taking Michigan’s fight against same-sex marriage to the U.S. Supreme Court (and losing), he claimed he was just doing his duty to defend the Constitution.

It was a two-fold strategy. Schuette was able to make the case that he was a rock-solid man of principle, even when he took positions outside the political mainstream. And going after a Democratic president’s priorities thrilled the GOP base, although Schuette never made his attacks personal, even as the birther movement raged.

That’s just not who he is. Schuette carries himself as an old-school, George H.W. Bush Republican who prefers glad-handing in parades and the rubber-chicken circuit over dissolving into long-winded rants savaging his political enemies.

After being first elected to Congress in the Ronald Reagan era, Schuette has adapted to the changing tenor and priorities of the GOP during his long career as a state senator, Michigan Agriculture director, judge and finally AG. He’s ingratiated himself with the business-driven establishment, religious right and Tea Party, now pivoting to the Trumpists.

And yet, President Donald Trump — the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988 — didn’t even warrant a mention in Schuette’s speech (even Reagan popped up once). Now it’s true that Trump’s bombastic, tweet-driven style clashes with the AG’s deliberate, genial image. And the president’s sinking poll numbers in Michigan are making Republicans sweat.

But Trump remains popular with the GOP base and Schuette does have a partisan primary to win. Given the fact that he’s not naïve — indeed, Schuette is, hands down, the most gifted politician in the state — there’s clearly a strategy at work here.

It would seem that Schuette likes his chances enough in the primary enough not to give Trump a bear hug right now. Since his main competition is expected to be Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, who yanked his Trump endorsement after the “Access Hollywood” tape, Schuette may be making a smart bet that he’ll carry the president’s supporters next year, even if mainly by default.

And Schuette has weaved some Trump populism into his messaging, declaring, “For Michigan to reach higher, we need a governor who won’t accept the fate assigned to us by liberal elites who look down on manufacturing and the plumbers, electricians and builders — and head potato boys — the skilled trades that built our country and are needed to rebuild our infrastructure.”

But Schuette mainly chose to prove his conservative mettle by jabbing Obama and Granholm (which is much more comfortable territory for him). Raising the specter of the state’s first female governor helps him draw parallels to his most likely general election opponent, former Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing), with Schuette not-so-subtly warning that “Granholm’s lieutenants want to take back control of our state in 2018.”

In his speech, Schuette marveled that “it’s amazing we’re still standing” after eight years of Obama and Granholm. His press release had the headline, “We Need to Cop an Attitude. Because We're Michigan, and it's Time to Win Again,” followed by the subhead: “My one goal: to make Michigan a growth state, a paycheck state, a jobs state.”

That’s a bit curious, since we’ve had a GOP governor for almost seven years, who presumably could have done something about growth, paychecks and jobs. If you check in with Rick Snyder — who did get one brief mention in Schuette’s remarks — he’ll tell a very different story about Michigan’s economy.

Of course, Snyder is of little use to Schuette right now. He’s one of the most unpopular governors in the country and can be expected to back his LG in the primary. Snyder and Schuette also have chafed on a variety of issues, like Detroit pensions, but the AG’s decision to charge key administration figures in his Flint water crisis probe has brought tensions to a boil.

Indeed, after listening to Schuette in Midland, you just might forget that Republicans have controlled all three branches of Michigan government since 2011 and that the party now enjoys the same status in Washington.

And you just might believe that a Republican candidate for governor would be the change agent Michigan desperately needs right now.

We’ll see if Schuette’s gamble works.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Macomb County Hit by Hurricane Karen

The Michigan Legislature has suffered a series of black eyes in the last few years, thanks to its members.

One was expelled: Rep. Cindy Gamrat (R-Plainwell), who was accused of abusing her office. Her partner-in-crime, Rep. Todd Courser (R-Lapeer), resigned before suffering the same fate.

Two have resigned as a result of plea bargains: Rep. Brian Banks (D-Harper Woods), an eight-time felon who was charged with more financial felonies, and Sen. Virgil Smith (D-Detroit), who was convicted of a felony for shooting a semi-automatic weapon at his ex-wife’s car.

Sen. Bert Johnson (D-Highland Park) has been indicted by a grand jury on charges of conspiracy and theft from a federal program. And it looks like the House will have another member who’s a convicted felon after the special election in November, as Harper Woods School Board Member Tenisha Yancey is the Democratic nominee in Banks’ old seat, which is heavily Democratic.

As embarrassing as this is for Michigan, there’s actually a more troubling scandal afoot in Macomb County. That’s because none of these state legislators had the power to inflict the damage that the top official in charge of elections and vital records can in a key Michigan county.

Karen Spranger, a local gadfly best known for donning a tinfoil suit at government meetings to protest smart meters, got swept into the clerk’s office last fall as part of the Donald Trump GOP wave crashing through Macomb.

She replaced retiring Clerk Carmella Sabaugh, who was known for running one of the most innovative and efficient offices in Michigan. All Spranger really had to do was keep key staff in place, sit back and collect her sizeable $108,880 annual salary.

But Spranger had other plans. The Detroit Free Press summarized her tenure well in the lead of its story last month:

“In her first seven months as the Macomb County Clerk/Register of Deeds, Karen Spranger got kicked off her county computer for allowing noncounty workers on it; fired her two top appointed deputies; sued the county over a litany of issues, and was named as a defendant in three other lawsuits, including a whistle-blower complaint in federal court filed by her former top aides.

“She was fined $100 for a county ethics violation; totaled her county car in a crash; filed a criminal complaint about the news media harassing her; was caught on video pushing storage bins to a construction area before an office move she opposed, and is under investigation for allegedly lying on her affidavit to run for office.”

The article also notes that the Freep “wasn’t able to find any evidence that Spranger had held a regular job since graduating from high school.”

A St. Clair County judge is overseeing a case that could result in Spranger’s removal from office. But even if she gets the boot, it could take years for the county to recover from Hurricane Karen.

If Spranger were a state lawmaker, she could make some goofy floor speeches, introduce bills that would go nowhere and cast questionable votes. But she would be one of 110 members in the House or 38 occupants of the Senate. Her constituents could suffer from poor representation, but the overall destruction she could cause to the Legislature as an institution would be limited.

Unfortunately, Spranger is in a position to hobble critical functions in a large Michigan county as clerk.

And it’s the kind of stuff people notice. She’s in charge of a host of records, including birth, divorce, death, deeds, mortgages, liens and business registration. The office handles the filing of new civil, domestic and criminal cases and maintains all of the existing case files for the 16th Circuit Court. And Spranger is also charged with running elections.

Her office appears to be completely dysfunctional, as almost one-third of her “80-plus-member staff was unfilled or on medical leave at one point” in July, according to the Freep. Court e-filings were behind and Spranger missed the deadline to submit her budget.

Macomb County is home to almost 1 million people (including many members of my family). At this point, who has confidence that their vital records are being accurately recorded and safeguarded? Who believes Spranger can oversee a big election next year?

Sure, Macomb is a pretty colorful place, known for rough-and-tumble politics and some corrupt officials. But it’s also home to two highly popular figures, County Executive Mark Hackel, a Democrat, and Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller, a GOP former congresswoman. They’ve had plenty of experience righting the ship in government.

But cleaning up the mess in the clerk’s office could end up being the biggest challenge for the county yet.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Republicans Hope Kid Rock Is for Real

Donald Trump is president. So of course, Kid Rock can be the next U.S. senator from Michigan.

That’s the argument pundits and Republicans are essentially making after the Macomb County rock star released a website teasing the prospect (with merch, natch). And it may be correct.

As I told the Washington Post earlier this month, I would have laughed at the idea of Senator Rock in 2015. But I got plenty wrong about Trump and the 2016 election and it’s always worth reconsidering data points and assumptions.

Of course, there’s also a danger in overlearning the lessons of the last election and assuming the next one will take place under identical circumstances (which never happens).

Anyway, here’s why Republicans (and the D.C. media) are so pumped about a Kid Rock candidacy for 2018.

The first reason is the breathless media coverage it would inspire (and already has). There’s nothing like a local-boy-made-good story and the “Cowboy” singer, who still has deep roots in the Mitten State, provides that in spades (even if he doesn’t have an inspiring rags-to-riches story, having grown up in what Politico describes as an “immense, 18-room, 5,628-square-foot estate”).

Sure, Trump frequently flings irascible tweets about certain reporters and the “failing New York Times.” And a new Economist poll shows 45 percent of Republicans favor the courts shutting down media outlets for “biased or inaccurate stories (buh-bye, First Amendment). But Republicans still crave positive mainstream media coverage for all their bluster. And thus far, there’s been plenty for Kid Rock.

Plus, the right-wing media is always happy to step in and provide a boost. As Daily Caller writer Scott Greer tweeted, “Let's face it: we all want Kid Rock to run for office.”

This calculation is undoubtedly correct. Suddenly, Michigan’s once-boring U.S. Senate race, where popular three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) was expected to wipe the floor with any GOP challenger, will become The Most Interesting Race in the Country.

Now many longtime Republicans have pointed out that other candidates running, like former Michigan Supreme Court Judge Bob Young and businessman John James, are far more qualified, so this lopsided coverage wouldn’t fair. That’s the same argument the 15 other presidential hopefuls made about Trump, however, which was also correct — but many in the media, especially ratings-driven cable TV executives, didn’t care.

That’s why most Republicans believe Kid Rock would be the odds-on favorite in a GOP primary — overpowering Young, James and former Michigan Trump campaign co-chair Lena Epstein (who was banking on the president’s support) — and make the general a nail-biter.

However, the superstar could always just be toying with a run to juice his long-declining album sales. And of course, should he actually take the plunge, he’ll appear as “Robert Ritchie” on the ballot, which means his campaign will have to spend time and money making his two monikers synonymous with voters.

The second reason why Republicans are urging Kid Rock to run is that they're eager to see if Trump’s politically incorrect celebrity schtick can work down-ballot.

Like the president, Kid Rock has had his share of personal drama, from his sex tape to divorcing Pamela Anderson (a former Playboy Playmate best known for hers), and a racking up a few assault charges along the way. But the theory is that if Trump’s crudeness didn’t cost him with voters, especially the once-uptight religious right, Kid Rock will glide by in his U.S. Senate race.

Relatedly, Republicans believe that Kid Rock will cause (white) blue-collar voters to swamp the polls like they would for a free concert. The idea is that this will eat away at Stabenow’s base, which is more rural than that of other Dems, thanks to her farming roots. And the GOP will duplicate Trump’s narrow 2016 win in Michigan. Of course, Trump's poll numbers in the state have slid since then.

This week, the White House said the quiet part out loud to the press and admitted Trump’s surprise tweets announcing a transgender ban in the military was all about politics. “This forces Democrats in Rust Belt states like Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, to take complete ownership of this issue,” an official bragged to Axios. (Thus far, this doesn’t seem like a smashing success, as even staunch conservatives like U.S. Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) have criticized the move).

But the GOP knows that 2018 looks to be a Democratic year for two reasons: Their massively unpopular Trumpcare policy and the historic precedent of the party in the White House taking a hit in midterm elections.

The situation could be more dire in Michigan, as Republicans have controlled every branch of government since 2011 and voters start to get twitchy. Michigan also still trends blue in federal races and Stabenow is an excellent candidate, from her stellar fundraising to tireless time on the stump.

This all underscores something that’s been overlooked in all the Kid Rock ruckus. After Trump scored his shocking upset in Michigan last year, there was all sorts of chest-thumping from Republicans that we were a red state now and Stabenow was toast in ‘18.

But as Republicans revealed to Politico, Kid Rock represents a hail Mary pass, as  Stabenow has “devoured her last two challengers and will almost certainly make it three in a row if Republicans run another traditional campaign.”

So Kid Rock could be for real and there’s a shot he could win. But the enthusiasm for his candidacy belies some real fundamental weaknesses in Michigan for the GOP.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: What’s the Future of the Rust Belt?

“In so many once-thriving communities, young people have fled, and the residents who do remain have grown frustrated over diminished job prospects, and are anxious about the future. The very same anger and anxiety that found an outlet at the ballot box in 2016.” — John Austin

If you’re looking for a clear, just-the-facts-ma’am look at how the industrial Midwest is changing and how that gave us President Trump, you can’t go wrong with John Austin’s new piece, “A Tale of Two Rust Belts,” for the Brookings Institution.

No, it’s not one of those cloying columns national pundits have been churning out by the dozens after spending 10 minutes chatting up laid-off workers in Warren or Youngstown. It’s a well-researched, accessibly academic article by someone who actually lives here.

Austin is a fellow at the esteemed think tank. He also was recently ousted from a job he did exceedingly well — president of the state Board of Education (more on that in a bit).

I met with Austin a few weeks before this piece was published and much of our conversation revolved around Michigan’s evolutionary growing pains. He’s deeply concerned about what happens to areas with shrinking industrial bases, like Macomb County, Flint and Saginaw, as well as the largely rural northern swath of the state that Bridge Magazine has dubbed the new “Disability Belt.”

Austin notes that many of these areas voted for Trump in 2016. In contrast, cities with highly educated workforces (which usually have a university nearby), like Ann Arbor, Lansing and Kalamazoo, are thriving economically and voted for Hillary Clinton.

Bridging these vast cultural, educational and political divides in Michigan is no easy task. However, Austin believes the next governor must try to do exactly that.

Once upon a time, Austin was considered a prime Democratic gubernatorial prospect for 2018. He’s deeply thoughtful and has an envy-inducing résumé in addition to Brookings and his public service: He holds a master’s from Harvard’s Kennedy School, directs the Michigan Economic Center and previously was founding director of the New Economy Initiative for Southeast Michigan.

Austin’s work has earned him a bipartisan fan club (at least if you count old-guard Republicans). I noted last year that he might also be able to appeal to idealistic Bernie Sanders supporters.

But Austin ran into a big roadblock when he lost his 2016 re-election bid. He was rather bizarrely, and completely unfairly, targeted for his strong support of transgender students.

After spearheading the drive for completely voluntary school guidelines for trans kids, Austin butted heads with fellow board member Eileen Weiser, whose husband, Ron Weiser, is now Michigan Republican Party chair. The Detroit News — which used to run periodic editorials practically begging the GOP to drop incendiary stands on social issues and focus on conservative economics — ran staff columns siding with the culture warriors replete with the “special rights” canard straight out of the 1990s.

It’s unconscionable for anyone to make our most vulnerable children into a cheap and easy political target. And it’s admirable that Austin was willing to stand up for them.

That’s the kind of courage we could use in the governor’s mansion. But that’s not the next fight Austin is planning to take on. Instead, he’s looking to assist with Michigan’s future in other ways. For starters, he’ll be following up on his Brookings piece on on what can be done at the state and national level to help hollowed-out Rust Belt cities and those who still live there.

That sounds like the sort of thing people who are running for the state’s highest office just might want to pay attention to.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Michigan’s GOP U.S. Senate Skirmish Stars Donald Trump

There aren’t a lot of hard-and-fast rules in politics left now that a former pro-wrestling instigator and reality TV star is president.

But staying true to yourself still remains a good rule of thumb for anyone who wants to appear on a ballot. (Indeed, that worked out pretty well last year for Donald Trump, who made no attempt to stop tossing Twitter bombs in favor of stilted political speeches).

So if you’re a longtime business executive who’s donated to moderate candidates and sent your kids to private schools, you might not want to suddenly reinvent yourself as a Bernie Sanders-style Democrat prepping for the “revolution,” even if the neck beard suits you.

Likewise, if you’re a former chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court who’s built a decades-long reputation for being a thoughtful, judicious conservative, you might want to rethink the idea of running as a Trump-style Republican.

But that’s exactly what Bob Young is doing in his uphill battle for U.S. Senate in 2018.

Since it wasn’t exactly a secret that he was running (he let the cat slip out of the bag earlier this month at a GOP fundraiser in Mt. Pleasant), Young decided to make the announcement this week on Facebook Live, where political consultants think all the youngs hang out. (As the mother of two teenagers, I can confirm that is 100% not true).

“I’m the disruptor that D.C. needs,” Young declared, quite animatedly, outside what he said was his childhood home in Detroit.

“I’m not a politician — I’m a judge,” Young said in a statement. “When I get to Washington, I’m going to lay down the law — no more big government, and no more government getting in the way of businesses and communities solving problems and creating jobs.”

At first blush, you might think that Young was trying to draw a strong contrast to three-term U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing), who Republicans are utterly convinced is beatable.

Young described himself as a “black, conservative Republican” and dismissed Stabenow (who’s just a year older) as a “product of the past.” (That also seems fairly reminiscent of Trump, 71, slamming Hillary Clinton, 69, for not having “the stamina” to be president).

But this is really about the Republican primary. Young was undoubtedly hoping for an uncontested race. Instead, he’ll have to battle with 35-year-old Lena Epstein, who made a name for herself as Trump’s No. 1 defender in Michigan last year. She jumped into the Senate race while Young was still mulling over his candidacy.

While many Michigan Republicans were wary of or even publicly critical of Trump, like Gov. Rick Snyder, Epstein had no such qualms and quickly became the real estate magnate’s state campaign co-chair. That’s something that Trump isn’t likely to forget — and neither will his diehard supporters in the party.

So Epstein has carved out her territory in the Republican primary as the true Trumpian candidate. As a businessperson who’s never run for office before, she’s a true outsider. And, like Young, Epstein is not afraid to play up her identity, stressing in an op-ed last year that she’s a Jewish millennial woman.

That’s going to be a tough combination for Young to beat.

Epstein also seems itching for a fight (and she’s hired GOP consultant John Yob, who specializes in internecine warfare).

Before Young declared, she announced that she “unapologetically” supports Trump’s promised to build a wall with Mexico and punish “sanctuary cities.” And in a move that caused political junkies to break out the popcorn, Epstein bought an online ad in which she challenged Young to “clarify where he stands on these critical issues.”

Epstein didn’t let up when Young made his formal announcement, ripping Stabenow and Young for their combined almost 60 years in elective office. Then Epstein reaffirmed her affinity for all things Trump and asserted that Michigan voters made it clear in 2016 that they wanted “outside leaders with business experience.”

I’m not sure how Young can really compete with Epstein on the Trumpian outsider front. He has a long record of public service. He’s a traditional conservative in the Michigan mold of John Engler and Spence Abraham (who Stabenow beat in 2000 to win the seat).

The problem is that brand of Republicanism just may not resonate with the base anymore. But it’s probably a more believable look for Young, who just isn’t cut out to sell Trump-like rants.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Michigan GOP Could Go All in on Trump in U.S. Senate Race

Unlike most of the political class in Michigan, Lena Epstein boarded the Trump train early. And now she’s hoping to hitch a ride to the U.S. Senate in 2018.

After supporting social conservative Rick Santorum, who fell short in his 2012 presidential bid, Epstein settled on Donald Trump in early 2016 while most Michigan Republicans were flocking to mainstream choices like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz or John Kasich.

Epstein, the general manager for her family’s business, Southfield-based Vesco Oil, has said she was drawn to Trump as a fellow businessperson.

She soon became the Michigan campaign’s co-chair, defending him on everything from the loan his real estate mogul father gave him (she quoted Fred Trump saying, “Everything [Donald] touches seems to turn to gold”) to the “Access Hollywood” tape where the younger Trump bragged about being able to “grab ‘em by the pussy” (Epstein quipped that “he would not be my first choice for my child’s temple Sunday school teacher”).

Epstein explained her surrogacy style to the media thusly: “I never apologized for misstatements he made. I would just pivot to why I supported him: to grow the economy, protect our borders and have increased opportunities for families and children.”

In an October 2016 pro-Trump op-ed for the Jewish News, the 35-year-old laid down her marker: “I’m Jewish. I’m a woman. I’m a millennial.”

Those are all qualities that Epstein has played up as she’s declared for U.S. Senate against three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing). The hardworking former Senate Agriculture Committee chair is the rare Democrat who knows how to reach voters above M-10.

It’s an interesting gamble. Trump’s poll numbers are tumbling both in Michigan and nationally. But the president still has solid support with Republicans, even amidst the unpopularity of Trumpcare and as his administration has become engulfed in scandal over its ties to Russia.

If this holds, the GOP could face a Catch-22. Perhaps only a Trump loyalist can win the U.S. Senate GOP primary. But that strong pro-Trump stance could cost a Republican nominee in the general election.

Many politicos think Epstein has the GOP nomination in the bag. It’s no secret that Republicans have long believed that the only way to take out Stabenow is with a female candidate. And they’ve also pined for a self-funder, as the incumbent is known for her huge fundraising hauls.

Epstein checks a lot of boxes. She hails from southeast Michigan, the population base of the state, and has a family fortune from which to draw. She has impeccable Trump credentials and a well-known campaign consultant, John Yob, who advised the last two Republicans who ran for U.S. Senate (Pete Hoekstra in 2012 and Terri Lynn Land in ‘14, both of whom lost).

But it’s early. And it’s not a done deal that Epstein will have a clear field. Former state Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) has been on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s radar. Former Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bob Young is still very interested and would have plenty of GOP support. And U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who has crossover appeal, hasn’t ruled out a run. In fact, with Democrats making noise about targeting his seat in ‘18, now might be the ideal time for him to take the leap for Senate.

Let’s not forget that many insiders also decided early this year that Gretchen Whitmer had the ‘18 Democratic nomination for governor wrapped up. For a few hours after U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) announced he wouldn’t run, their thesis seemed correct.

But then University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein, who also runs the well-known Bernstein law firm, quickly started putting out feelers. That prompted another prominent attorney, 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Geoffrey Fieger, to get in on the action with a spicy “Off the Record” appearance. Now Whitmer is looking for a new campaign spokesperson and it looks like the race could descend into a free-for-all.

There are still 438 days before the Aug. 7, 2018 primary. A lot can change in any race. The only thing we can definitively say at this point is that next year’s election doesn’t look boring.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here. 

Susan J. Demas: What Do Soft Trump Supporters Think Now?

President Donald Trump has been in office for just under four months — and there’s already serious talk that his presidency may not survive four years.

(This column, by the way, was written after former FBI Director James Comey’s memo leaked about Trump asking him to kill the Russia probe, but probably before another scandal rocked the White House).

The latest PPP polling shows a plurality of voters, 48 percent to 41 percent, support impeaching Trump.

While esteemed lawyers, most notably those at the Brookings Institute’s Lawfare blog, have outlined grounds for impeachment, the fact is that it is always a political process. (How else could we explain Bill Clinton getting impeached for lying about oral sex?)

Republicans control both houses of Congress, so the focus has rightly been on where members stand. Cracks are beginning to show, with U.S. House Oversight Chair Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) demanding FBI documents on Trump and Comey and other key Republicans like U.S. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) expressing openness to appointing a special prosecutor.

But most political observers believe that Republicans in Congress will dally in hopes that the storm passes because of one key reason: Trump still has the GOP base.

His job approval rating has plummeted to 38 percent, but he’s still at a whopping 84 percent with Republicans, according to Gallup. And those are the voters Republican lawmakers — most of whom represent safe seats — are most interested in appeasing.

That also helps explain why the right-wing media bubble of Fox News, Breitbart, Infowars, etc. keeps stoically defending Trump and trying to deflect with daily doses of outrage and conspiracy theories.

No matter what the president does, I doubt Trump diehards and hardcore Republican partisans will ever break against him in large numbers. Just two months before Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974, only scant plurality, 44 percent to 41 percent, supported his removal from office. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.

But what I’m curious about is how this is all going down with soft Trump supporters, which is not an easily identified group. It doesn’t really help to look at how he’s polling with independents — which, it should be noted, is an atrocious 35 percent.

Indies are a hodgepodge. There are hard Dem and GOP partisans who like the freethinker image that declaring yourself to be an independent conveys. There’s the chin-stroking “both sides” brigade, which really only consists of TV pundits and jaded government veterans. In my 15 years of interviewing voters (i.e. Real Americans), I’m not sure I’ve actually met someone who espouses that philosophy.

Then there are low-information voters who are all over the place on the ideological spectrum and vote (however infrequently) based on personality and emotion. This is the subset, I believe, that proved decisive for Trump, at least with the 70,000 voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that put him over the top in the Electoral College.

These are not political junkies, so I don’t think they’re enveloped in the right-wing media bubble. They’re generally not obsessively watching Fox News and their Facebook feeds are more likely filled with normal stuff, like sports and their friends’ babies.

So let’s say you like Trump. You thought he’d bring an outsider businessman perspective to the White House and drain the swamp. Maybe you liked some of his bold ideas, like building the wall.

What are you thinking right now about a president who can’t seem to get anything done? Does he seem like just another typical politician? Sure, the media are awful and are being unfair. But wasn’t he supposed to change everything in Washington?

I wouldn’t be surprised if these soft Trump supporters are starting to sour on the president. Some of them will definitely stick with him, because he’s still better than smug liberal elites. Some of them might very well flip and vote Democratic in 2018, especially if they’re directly impacted by GOP health care cuts. And plenty of them probably won’t vote next time.

There doesn’t appear to be a lot of strategy coming out of the Oval Office these days, as the president seems to constantly light things on fire. But trying to keep some of his less-committed supporters, not just the hardliners, would seem important.

And if he doesn’t, that seems like fertile ground for enterprising Democrats to plow.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.