Susan J. Demas: Democrats Now Have a Road Map for 2018

Democrats smashed all expectations on Tuesday, racking up key election wins across the country. To make victory even sweeter, this was almost a year to the date from when Donald Trump shocked progressives by conquering the presidency.

Indeed, the news was so bad for Republicans that Fox News barely covered the results and the only election Trump referenced on Twitter was the one in 2016.

The year after a presidential election, the marquee races are for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and Virginia governor. On Tuesday, Democrats won the trifecta — and no election was even close, even as pundits declared they’d “blown it” in Virginia.

These elections have long been considered a barometer for what to expect in the midterms. As of now, everything seems to be coming up roses for the Dems.

In 2009, a year after Barack Obama’s first victory, Republicans took both gubernatorial races. Mike Bloomberg switched that year from being a Republican to an independent and won a third term as New York mayor.

And in Michigan, Republicans triumphed in a special state Senate race that year. As I’ve noted, the victory of now-Sen. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) was a harbinger of the GOP tsunami in 2010, when the party won the governorship, a 9-5 advantage in Congress, a 63-47 majority in the House and a 26-12 supermajority in the Senate.

The result of the special state House race Tuesday in the 109th district to replace the late Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette) might not seem as dramatic. Democrats held an Upper Peninsula seat with a solid 56.9 percent Democratic base, per Inside Michigan Politics — one that’s been in their hands for more than a half-century. But it’s also a district that Trump won last year and the U.P. has been trending red since 2010.

Democrats were nervous, especially after Trump’s upset in Michigan a year ago. But despite Republicans’ best efforts — running Rich Rossway, a well-funded moderate who courted unions — Democrat Sara Cambensy won by 14 points.

The Dems’ enthusiasm is a great sign for 2018. That’s what they need if they want to flip the state House, which is split 63-47 in the GOP’s favor, and/or capture the big prize of the governor’s mansion. Either way, the Dems would regain a foothold in shaping the state’s agenda — and in the all-important 2021 redistricting process.

It’s significant that Cambensy won in spite deep divisions in the party. Republicans tried to exploit them, arguing the pro-choice Cambensy was too liberal for the district and pointing out that she’d primaried the popular Kivela last year. Nothing stuck.

The GOP attacks against Democrat Ralph Northam in the Virginia gubernatorial race also fell flat. Pundits speculated that menacing ads (which warned the Dem would let international MS-13 killers run wild in the state) would be the death knell for Northam. But he won the race handily.

Since Trump’s surprise victory last year, the media have been obsessed with white working-class voters who flipped to him. Democrats have been mired in debates about how to win those voters back, which has, at times, slighted women and people of color.

I’ve noted that a sect of Michigan Democrats has been focused on finding a white male gubernatorial candidate for months. They fervently believe that the only way for Dems to win back the governor’s mansion is with a “safe” nominee after Trump flipped Michigan last year.

The current field includes frontrunner former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Detroit Health Department head who would be the nation’s first Muslim governor. There’s also businessman Shri Thanedar, who immigrated from India, and former executive Bill Cobbs, who’s African-American.

But Tuesday’s results don’t support the premise that Dems must adopt a defensive crouch and find the “Great White Male Hope,” starting with Cambensy’s victory in the U.P. She certainly wasn’t the safe choice for Democrats to nominate and yet she shattered expectations.

In Virginia, a trans journalist defeated the homophobic author of the “bathroom bill” in a state House race. The chamber also got its first Asian female and Latina members. And the boyfriend of a reporter killed on live TV defeated an NRA-backed candidate on a gun-control platform.

Charlotte, N.C., elected its first black female mayor and six other cities elected their first black mayors. Both of the new lieutenant governors in New Jersey and Virginia are African-American. An African-American woman beat a local New Jersey official who had posted a meme wondering if the Women’s March activists would be “over in time for them to cook dinner.”

And after enduring a campaign marked by “Don’t let TERRORISM take over our town!” fliers, Hoboken, N.J., elected its first Sikh mayor.

If you’re looking for a common thread, it would be that so many of these rising political stars are passionate about America as they see it — a beautiful, messy, diverse republic where anyone should be able to make it. Sure, it’s a rebuke of Trump, who’s fond of describing our nation as a dystopian hellscape. But it’s also a pretty appealing and uplifting message.

And even if you don’t buy the message, you can’t deny the candidates’ passion. That’s a quality that can’t be manufactured and wins races — which is exactly what Democrats need in 2018.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.
 

Susan J. Demas: Schuette Wants To Be the Change Michigan Believes in

If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought Barack Obama was still president based on Attorney General Bill Schuette’s speech this week announcing his 2018 gubernatorial campaign.

And if I really wasn’t paying attention, I may have assumed that Jennifer Granholm was still the governor of Michigan, even though she left the Romney Building in 2010.

Schuette mentioned both Democrats no less than eight times apiece in his roughly 20-minute oratory delivered in his hometown of Midland, a picturesque mid-Michigan hamlet he lovingly wrote about in his 2015 book, Big Lessons from a Small Town.

As I noted back in March, Obama was the perfect foil for Schuette. The Republican AG cast himself as a “rule of law” conservative, frequently joining lawsuits against the administration’s “overreaching” agenda, including overtime rules, the contraception mandate and Obamacare.

And so when Schuette came under fire for his right-wing positions, like taking Michigan’s fight against same-sex marriage to the U.S. Supreme Court (and losing), he claimed he was just doing his duty to defend the Constitution.

It was a two-fold strategy. Schuette was able to make the case that he was a rock-solid man of principle, even when he took positions outside the political mainstream. And going after a Democratic president’s priorities thrilled the GOP base, although Schuette never made his attacks personal, even as the birther movement raged.

That’s just not who he is. Schuette carries himself as an old-school, George H.W. Bush Republican who prefers glad-handing in parades and the rubber-chicken circuit over dissolving into long-winded rants savaging his political enemies.

After being first elected to Congress in the Ronald Reagan era, Schuette has adapted to the changing tenor and priorities of the GOP during his long career as a state senator, Michigan Agriculture director, judge and finally AG. He’s ingratiated himself with the business-driven establishment, religious right and Tea Party, now pivoting to the Trumpists.

And yet, President Donald Trump — the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988 — didn’t even warrant a mention in Schuette’s speech (even Reagan popped up once). Now it’s true that Trump’s bombastic, tweet-driven style clashes with the AG’s deliberate, genial image. And the president’s sinking poll numbers in Michigan are making Republicans sweat.

But Trump remains popular with the GOP base and Schuette does have a partisan primary to win. Given the fact that he’s not naïve — indeed, Schuette is, hands down, the most gifted politician in the state — there’s clearly a strategy at work here.

It would seem that Schuette likes his chances enough in the primary enough not to give Trump a bear hug right now. Since his main competition is expected to be Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, who yanked his Trump endorsement after the “Access Hollywood” tape, Schuette may be making a smart bet that he’ll carry the president’s supporters next year, even if mainly by default.

And Schuette has weaved some Trump populism into his messaging, declaring, “For Michigan to reach higher, we need a governor who won’t accept the fate assigned to us by liberal elites who look down on manufacturing and the plumbers, electricians and builders — and head potato boys — the skilled trades that built our country and are needed to rebuild our infrastructure.”

But Schuette mainly chose to prove his conservative mettle by jabbing Obama and Granholm (which is much more comfortable territory for him). Raising the specter of the state’s first female governor helps him draw parallels to his most likely general election opponent, former Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing), with Schuette not-so-subtly warning that “Granholm’s lieutenants want to take back control of our state in 2018.”

In his speech, Schuette marveled that “it’s amazing we’re still standing” after eight years of Obama and Granholm. His press release had the headline, “We Need to Cop an Attitude. Because We're Michigan, and it's Time to Win Again,” followed by the subhead: “My one goal: to make Michigan a growth state, a paycheck state, a jobs state.”

That’s a bit curious, since we’ve had a GOP governor for almost seven years, who presumably could have done something about growth, paychecks and jobs. If you check in with Rick Snyder — who did get one brief mention in Schuette’s remarks — he’ll tell a very different story about Michigan’s economy.

Of course, Snyder is of little use to Schuette right now. He’s one of the most unpopular governors in the country and can be expected to back his LG in the primary. Snyder and Schuette also have chafed on a variety of issues, like Detroit pensions, but the AG’s decision to charge key administration figures in his Flint water crisis probe has brought tensions to a boil.

Indeed, after listening to Schuette in Midland, you just might forget that Republicans have controlled all three branches of Michigan government since 2011 and that the party now enjoys the same status in Washington.

And you just might believe that a Republican candidate for governor would be the change agent Michigan desperately needs right now.

We’ll see if Schuette’s gamble works.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Thanedar Tries To Shake Up ‘18

What does $3.2 million of your personal fortune get you in the 2018 gubernatorial race?

In the case of Democrat Shri Thanedar, it’s paid off in some good fundraising stories (sadly, his name had been axed from most headlines by the end of the news day after the shock wore off) and a within-the-margin-of-error polling performance.

Thanedar, who last year sold his company, Avomeen Analytical Services, “for a lot of money” (as he told the Detroit News), has a fascinating story to tell, something he heavy-handedly does on his campaign website: “My story is one of grit and determination, of the highs of success and the lessons of failure, of unwavering optimism in the face of harsh adversity. It is about pursuing the American dream and never giving up.”

Here’s the thumbnail version: Thanedar escaped poverty in India to earn a PhD in polymer chemistry in America. He settled in Missouri and bought a business, which ballooned and then went belly up. Thanedar remade himself in Michigan with a new company and has now decided he wants to be the state’s next CEO.

Meanwhile, frontrunner Gretchen Whitmer, a former state Senate minority leader known for her leadership on women’s issues and establishment support, raised $1.5 million the hard way. And former Detroit Health Department head Abdul El-Sayed, who’s captured the imagination of many Bernie Sanders supporters, posted an impressive $1 million.

Thanedar needs to make up ground quickly, as his name ID is nil. Though it’s unfair, his accent won’t help him tell his story with some voters in Michigan. Moreover, Democrats are wondering what the newcomer stands for, especially on issues he doesn’t touch on his website, like the Second Amendment and abortion rights.

If no one else jumps into the race, most expect Thanedar to play the role of footnote or spoiler, possibly splitting up the non-establishment vote.

In a February column, I noted that there was some hankering for nontraditional outsider gubernatorial candidates in both parties. Michigan Democrats traditionally have a smaller donor base than the GOP, so a self-funder is always attractive (it’s one reason why many were eager for well-known attorney and University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein to get in).

Thanedar, however, isn’t exactly in the mold of other wealthy Dems like Illinois gubernatorial hopeful J.B. Pritzker, a key Barack Obama fundraiser whose family owns the Hyatt hotel chain, or Tom Steyer, a hedge fund manager and climate change warrior who could run for California governor. Thanedar’s fortune isn’t as vast and he’s not ensconced in the party (he gave just $60 to the House Democratic Fund last year and $2,300 to Republican John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign).

The blueprint for a Thanedar victory is obvious: Our current governor, Rick Snyder. There’s no shortage of similarities. Both are Ann Arbor entrepreneurs who never ran for office before their self-funded outsider gubernatorial bids.

At this point, few would be surprised if Thanedar copied Snyder’s signature move, releasing a biographical Super Bowl ad next year (perhaps declaring himself to be the compassionate nerd Michigan needs right now).

In 2010, Snyder kicked in nearly $6 million of his own money to win a five-way GOP primary. That might explain why the buzz around Lansing is that the Thanedar plans to dump close to eight figures into the ‘18 primary alone, which could make some on his campaign team millionaires themselves. The former CEO could also make things interesting if he can tap into the national Indian-American donor base, as former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal skillfully did.

However, the governor was certainly better known around business and political circles when he embarked on his campaign than Thanedar is. Snyder has always had powerful connections with the more moderate corporate wing of the Republican party (which tolerates the social conservative platform in the name of tax breaks). He also served on the Michigan Economic Development Corp. board and supported the ‘08 embryonic stem cell amendment.  

Thanedar, the 2016 EY Entrepreneur of the Year, has tried to make up ground quickly and has met with dozens of reporters, lobbyists and GOP and Democratic strategists across the state. (Full disclosure: He met with my husband, Joe DiSano, who declined to work with him, and talked with me about writing his biography).

Thanedar has also courted the Small Business Association of Michigan (SBAM), which is smart, but this could ultimately end up costing him. President Rob Fowler told MIRS that Thanedar was initially questioning whether to run as a Republican or Democrat, which is not terribly helpful in winning a partisan primary (especially in these polarized times). While Thanedar has denied the conversation, Fowler is a Lansing institution and a straight shooter respected by both sides.

There’s certainly no shortage of fodder for Thanedar’s rivals if he starts edging up in the polls. But right now, that’s still a big “if.”

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Michigan GOP Could Go All in on Trump in U.S. Senate Race

Unlike most of the political class in Michigan, Lena Epstein boarded the Trump train early. And now she’s hoping to hitch a ride to the U.S. Senate in 2018.

After supporting social conservative Rick Santorum, who fell short in his 2012 presidential bid, Epstein settled on Donald Trump in early 2016 while most Michigan Republicans were flocking to mainstream choices like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz or John Kasich.

Epstein, the general manager for her family’s business, Southfield-based Vesco Oil, has said she was drawn to Trump as a fellow businessperson.

She soon became the Michigan campaign’s co-chair, defending him on everything from the loan his real estate mogul father gave him (she quoted Fred Trump saying, “Everything [Donald] touches seems to turn to gold”) to the “Access Hollywood” tape where the younger Trump bragged about being able to “grab ‘em by the pussy” (Epstein quipped that “he would not be my first choice for my child’s temple Sunday school teacher”).

Epstein explained her surrogacy style to the media thusly: “I never apologized for misstatements he made. I would just pivot to why I supported him: to grow the economy, protect our borders and have increased opportunities for families and children.”

In an October 2016 pro-Trump op-ed for the Jewish News, the 35-year-old laid down her marker: “I’m Jewish. I’m a woman. I’m a millennial.”

Those are all qualities that Epstein has played up as she’s declared for U.S. Senate against three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing). The hardworking former Senate Agriculture Committee chair is the rare Democrat who knows how to reach voters above M-10.

It’s an interesting gamble. Trump’s poll numbers are tumbling both in Michigan and nationally. But the president still has solid support with Republicans, even amidst the unpopularity of Trumpcare and as his administration has become engulfed in scandal over its ties to Russia.

If this holds, the GOP could face a Catch-22. Perhaps only a Trump loyalist can win the U.S. Senate GOP primary. But that strong pro-Trump stance could cost a Republican nominee in the general election.

Many politicos think Epstein has the GOP nomination in the bag. It’s no secret that Republicans have long believed that the only way to take out Stabenow is with a female candidate. And they’ve also pined for a self-funder, as the incumbent is known for her huge fundraising hauls.

Epstein checks a lot of boxes. She hails from southeast Michigan, the population base of the state, and has a family fortune from which to draw. She has impeccable Trump credentials and a well-known campaign consultant, John Yob, who advised the last two Republicans who ran for U.S. Senate (Pete Hoekstra in 2012 and Terri Lynn Land in ‘14, both of whom lost).

But it’s early. And it’s not a done deal that Epstein will have a clear field. Former state Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) has been on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s radar. Former Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bob Young is still very interested and would have plenty of GOP support. And U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who has crossover appeal, hasn’t ruled out a run. In fact, with Democrats making noise about targeting his seat in ‘18, now might be the ideal time for him to take the leap for Senate.

Let’s not forget that many insiders also decided early this year that Gretchen Whitmer had the ‘18 Democratic nomination for governor wrapped up. For a few hours after U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) announced he wouldn’t run, their thesis seemed correct.

But then University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein, who also runs the well-known Bernstein law firm, quickly started putting out feelers. That prompted another prominent attorney, 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Geoffrey Fieger, to get in on the action with a spicy “Off the Record” appearance. Now Whitmer is looking for a new campaign spokesperson and it looks like the race could descend into a free-for-all.

There are still 438 days before the Aug. 7, 2018 primary. A lot can change in any race. The only thing we can definitively say at this point is that next year’s election doesn’t look boring.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here. 

Susan J. Demas: Kildee Bows out and Shakes up the Governor’s Race

This week, the Lansing bubble seemed to burst.

Yes, U.S. Rep.Dan Kildee’s completely unsurprising decision not to run for the Democratic nomination for governor seems to have done the impossible. Politicos and reporters appeared to wake up to the fact that no, former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer doesn’t have this thing all sewn up, despite the fact that they’ve known her for decades.

And why would she? It’s 15 months before the primary for an open seat, for crying out loud.

Now personally, I would have liked to see an insider epiphany over something significant, like the realization that child poverty is a thing and we should maybe do more. But baby steps.

Anyway, the uncertainty of the 2018 Democratic race for governor has been clear for awhile if you spent time talking with folks outside the Capitol.

A lot of Dems were waiting for Kildee, especially those in labor or living in areas quickly slipping away from Democrats, like the U.P. and Macomb County. But there was a growing sense that he would stay in Congress, playing the role of aggressive foil to President Trump — which is what he ultimately decided to do after Republicans rammed their draconian repeal of Obamacare through the U.S. House. Now a lot of his supporters — and he has some fervent ones — are left looking for an alternative.

Whitmer has a strong fan base and her events across the state have drawn some impressive crowds. She’s expected to report a good fundraising haul. But as I noted last week, the anti-establishment Bernie Sanders voters are starting to gravitate toward former Detroit Health Department head Abdul El-Sayed.

There’s also no shortage of more establishment types who harbor deep concerns about Whitmer, which is why there was a lot of chatter about a “dream ticket” of Kildee-Whitmer or even about her running as attorney general instead. Of course her gender is a factor and of course it’s unfair. You can’t have a conversation about Whitmer without pointed comparisons to former Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Hillary Clinton.

But if Clinton had won Michigan last year, some of the sexism would have been muted. Her epic collapse north of M-10 and inability to turn out enough voters in southeast Michigan has made plenty of Dems jittery and wonder how Whitmer wins any votes that Clinton couldn’t. Time will tell if she can better connect with these voters than Clinton, who managed to lose Michigan twice.

Whitmer, a former Senate minority leader, has played up her 14-plus years in the Legislature as an asset. But it’s true she doesn’t have much of a record to show for it, as she served in the minority the whole time. Now Republicans had long identified her as a rising star and didn’t want to move her bills. And in her last four years, Gov. Rick Snyder was able to get most of what he wanted without Democrats’ support, so he didn’t trifle with them much. Still, wonky types wonder about how effective Whitmer would truly be at governing.

All of that is pretty premature, but there’s the political reality that the Senate caucus that she led has nearly gone extinct. When Whitmer was running for leader in 2010, the caucus shrank from 16 members to 12, putting them in a superminority where they couldn’t even procedurally block bills. During her leadership in ‘14, Democrats managed to lose another seat, a feat that seemed nearly impossible.

Whitmer has had the luxury of running in blue seats in the Lansing area and only faced some minor electoral battles at the beginning of her career (which is one reason why insiders bought into her ‘18 inevitability). Plenty of Democrats, however, would like to see her test her mettle in a tough gubernatorial primary, with the idea that the winner would emerge as a stronger candidate.

So Kildee’s announcement this week did what it was designed to do. It shook loose new Democratic possibilities for governor, notably University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein, who could put his 1-800-CALL-SAM legal family fortune to good use (and tantalizingly free up Democratic money for races up and down the ballot).

Can Bernstein win any votes that Whitmer can’t? Will there be other big names jumping in? That’s not clear.

But what has crystallized this week is that this race is far from over.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Whitmer vs. El-Sayed Could Be Clinton vs. Sanders All over Again

A few months ago, it looked like the only thing standing in Gretchen Whitmer’s way was Dan Kildee.

Whitmer, a Democratic former state Senate minority leader, leapt into the 2018 gubernatorial sweepstakes just after the New Year, while hopefuls in both parties were still issuing (not very convincing) denials about running. Most politicos (myself included) expected Kildee to get in, as the congressman has kept a very high profile during the Flint water crisis.

But even as Kildee has continued to waver between keeping a safe U.S. House seat and taking the plunge for state CEO, a new threat is emerging to Whitmer’s nomination.

And it’s coming from a very unlikely place.

When Dr. Abdul El-Sayed announced he was running for governor back in February, even Democratic insiders had to Google him. Sure, some people knew him from his work running the Detroit Health Department under Mayor Mike Duggan or from his Crain’s “40 Under 40” profile, but that was about it. He was 32, had never run for office and didn’t appear to be very politically active.

The last part was confirmed last week on WKAR’s “Off the Record,” when El-Sayed admitted he didn’t even vote in the 2016 presidential primary. But he did tell the panel that he would have voted for Bernie Sanders, who pulled out an upset win against Hillary Clinton.

And that helps explain why there’s growing grassroots enthusiasm for the man who would become the nation’s first Muslim governor. This isn’t readily apparent to those in Lansing, many of whom have known Whitmer for decades and have assumed she’s a lock.

But a lot of activists, particularly millennials, are psyched about El-Sayed. They like that he’s an outsider who’s never run for office. While plenty of Democratic lawmakers — particularly women — took offense when El-Sayed openly scoffed on OTR at Whitmer’s 14-plus years in the Legislature, many voters don’t consider political experience to be an asset anymore. Those on the far right and far left view holding elected office as a corrupting force.

It’s true that it’s hard to get to Whitmer’s left. She’s probably best known for her pro-choice and pro-LGBT views. But those positions are a given with the Democratic base. What a lot of activists are looking for is candidates who campaign on Bernie’s platform of slamming Wall Street and getting money out of politics. Outsiders like El-Sayed are in a better position to sell that agenda.

El-Sayed is busy making moves to show he’s for real. He’s been traveling the state and said on OTR that he’s raised $500,000 already, which isn’t chump change. And he’s hired a veteran campaign manager in Max Glass, who worked for Sanders favorite U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii).

The biggest question in the Democratic gubernatorial primary has always been where Sanders voters would go. In a Kildee vs. Whitmer contest, that wasn’t readily apparent, as both are establishment figures who served as Clinton surrogates. But if Kildee sits this one out, the Dem gubernatorial primary could morph into Sanders vs. Clinton, Part II, between El-Sayed and Whitmer.

This is a scenario that causes many Whitmer backers and political insiders to roll their eyes. She’s expected to clean up with money and endorsements. She hails from a political family and has an experienced team. He’s the longest of longshots as a religious minority who nobody’s heard of.

Of course, those are all arguments that people made in the ‘16 Michigan presidential primary.

It’s way too early to predict an El-Sayed Sanders-style upset next year. We’re 15 months out and the field isn’t even set. But it would be arrogant to dismiss the idea out of hand.

If 2016’s surprises didn’t teach you to question your political assumptions, I can’t really help you.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: The Next Governor May Be Someone You’ve Never Heard Of

It may be hard to remember now, but nobody thought Rick Snyder would ever be governor.

When he announced he was forming an exploratory committee roughly eight years ago, the Capitol press corps collectively yawned. In polling for a five-way GOP primary matchup, the former Gateway CEO fell within the margin of error.

Everyone knew the race was going to come down to Republican Attorney General Mike Cox and House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford).

Everyone turned out to be wrong.

In 2010, Snyder released his memorable “One Tough Nerd” Super Bowl ad. He showed he was willing to kick in over $5 million from his personal fortune. And he made a late appeal to Democrats and independents, which paid dividends.

Thanks to money, strategy and some luck, Snyder ended up winning the August primary by 9 points and went on to trounce Democrat Virg Bernero in the general election. And despite controversies over Snyder’s conservative agenda, which included Right to Work, he won re-election in 2014, albeit by a far smaller 4 point-margin.

But that’s still a pretty impressive track record for someone with zero political experience who no one initially took seriously.

So after the success that unconventional candidates like Snyder and now-President Donald Trump have enjoyed, it’s kind of curious that most political observers are banking on a conventional scenario for the next Michigan gubernatorial race.

With Snyder term-limited, the jockeying for 2018 has already begun in earnest. If you ask politicos, they’ll tell you they expect the Republican race to be between now-Attorney General Bill Schuette and Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, while giving the former the edge.

And they’d put their money on the Democratic primary coming down to former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) vs. U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint), with the latter being the favorite.

That’s not a bad bet to make, especially on the GOP side. Most Republicans seem content with those two choices. Calley is young, energetic and speaks the language of the religious right. And Schuette, who’s been elected to positions in every branch of government, is known for hitting the campaign trail in beast mode.

Lesser-known names like state Sen. Pat Colbeck (R-Canton) and Dr. Jim Hines may broaden the field, at least until they have to pony up 15,000 valid signatures next April. But so far, there’s no big self-funding candidate like Snyder on the horizon.

The Democratic side, however, could be more fluid than people think. Some of the party faithful are waiting for Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan to jump in and clear the field, but as of now, he’s playing the role of Godot.

Former State Board of Education President John Austin has long been interested in running, although his defeat last year may give voters pause. And Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel is keeping his name out there.

There are some intriguing and and relatively unknown hopefuls, like William Cobbs, a retired Xerox executive from Farmington Hills, and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a Rhodes Scholar and former Detroit health director.

The real wild card is the passionate Bernie Sanders supporters who swarmed the Michigan Democratic Party state convention earlier this month. Both Kildee and Whitmer will battle over these voters, but they can’t change the fact that they’re firmly ensconced in the establishment.

Democrats seem to be desperately searching for change. That could mean there’s room for a Snyder-style darkhorse hopeful in the gubernatorial primary who could really shake things up.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Flint water crisis could propel Congressman Kildee to run for governor in 2018

He's a gravelly-voiced guy from Flint, a place nobody spent much time thinking about until last month.

But Dan Kildee has. He was born there. He was raised there. And he became one of the youngest public officials in the country when he was elected to the local school board at 18 (not dissimilar to the path followed by his friend, liberal filmmaker and Flint native Michael Moore).

Now Kildee, 57, is Flint's congressman (succeeding his uncle, Dale, in 2012). Many Democrats had been talking up the younger Kildee for governor in three years.

But there were plenty who doubted he could win in 2018. Democrats traditionally like their nominees to hail from metro Detroit, where the big media markets are and so are the votes. (That's why many are enamored with Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running, although he's gruffly brushed off any speculation.)

Read more.