Susan J. Demas: African-American Women Want Conyers’ Seat

The race to replace former Dean of the House John Conyers Jr., who angrily resigned in December after a series of sexual harassment allegations, promised to be a rollicking free-for-all.

And so far, it hasn’t disappointed.

When all is said and done, more than a dozen Democrats could appear on the August ballot for the Detroit-based 13th congressional seat. And to add to the confusion, many, if not all, will appear twice — once for the special election to fill the remainder of Conyers’ term and another for the next term starting in 2019.

So far, most attention has been on the two men named “Conyers” vying for the seat, but there’s another important story of African-American women yearning for more representation.

In its typical snarky style, Vice noted how Michigan’s penchant for dynasties could play a role in not just the open 13th, but the 9th district this year: “Lord Conyers of Highland Park [sic] has two relatives trying to replace him; and retiring Representative Sander Levin (brother of former Senator Carl Levin and resident of perfectly named Royal Oak) is trying to get his son Andy to win the nomination for his old seat.”

Right before tendering his resignation, Conyers endorsed his son, John Conyers III, a hedge fund manager and political novice. The scion’s campaign isn’t subtle — his committee is titled “Conyers to Conyers.” After his father’s historic civil rights career ended in scandal, the younger Conyers could bring more of the same to Congress, as he was busted for driving a taxpayer-funded Escalade and arrested in 2017 for domestic violence.

State Sen. Ian Conyers (D-Detroit), has also declared. The congressman’s great-nephew, who won a special election in 2016, was considered leadership material in the Legislature. He’s also been an ally of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, but failed to earn his blessing this time around.

Instead, Duggan, fresh off a thunderous re-election, just threw his weight behind Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, with whom he’s worked on rebuilding Detroit post-bankruptcy. They mayor’s early endorsement — before the field has even been set — sends a message to rivals and key organizations that Jones is the favorite. TV Judge Greg Mathis, who briefly flirted with a bid, is on board. Look for the UAW to follow suit.

Jones is a logical standard-bearer. She’s the former president of Communications Workers of America, Local 4004 and won the National Organization for Women’s Sojourner Truth Award. Jones has pledged to uphold Congressman Conyers’ civil rights legacy and fully restore the Voting Rights Act.

She would also join U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield) as the second African-American member of Michigan’s congressional delegation (and, as it stands now, she’d be only the third woman). Many politicos, by the way, underestimated Lawrence in the open 14th primary back in 2014. Her longtime adviser, Christy Jensen, who’s one of the savviest Dems in Michigan, now works for Jones.

Two other African-American women have declared in the 13th and it’s no coincidence. They’ve been leading the resistance against President Trump, after 94 percent voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In last year’s special Alabama U.S. Senate election, 98 percent of African-American women voted for Democrat Doug Jones, putting him over the top in the blood-red state.

“Black women are the backbone of the Democratic Party, and we can’t take that for granted. Period,” Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez said after the Alabama election.

But many black women still feel taken for granted. Many Democrats remain obsessed with winning back working-class white men and sneer at “identity politics.” There’s never been an African-American female governor in the nation. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) is only the second black woman to serve in the body. And there are just 19 African-American women serving in the U.S. House.

State Rep. Sherry Gay-Dagnogo (D-Detroit), a former educator, is also running in the 13th. But she has some baggage as a fiery defender of Conyers and one of only 11 representatives to vote against a resolution calling for Michigan State University President Lou Anna Simon to resign over the Dr. Larry Nassar sexual abuse scandal.

Former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson (D-Detroit), who lost her primary bid to Conyers in 2012, is set to run again. She’ll face blowback for her job as director of government relations for the Moroun family’s Detroit International Bridge Company, whose business and environmental policies have long rankled progressives.

One of them is former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit), who just declared for the 13th and won’t be shy about banging on the Morouns or her other foes, like Duggan. She’s also a master at getting media attention. In 2016, more than a dozen protesters were tossed out of Trump’s speech at the Detroit Economic Club, but the only name anyone ever remembers is Tlaib’s.

She would be the first Muslim woman elected to Congress. But although Tlaib won three terms representing a majority African-American district in the state House, it remains to be seen if she can muster the same support for a far larger congressional seat.

Everyone is always looking for political analysts to whip out their crystal ball and definitively declare winners. That’s always a recipe for folly.

That’s especially true in the diverse 13th, which features two concurrent elections with so many candidates and dynamics. Anyone who tells you they know how this one will end is lying.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Another GOP Stabenow Challenger Bites the Dust

What a difference a year makes. And U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) probably couldn’t be happier.

This week, yet another one of her high-profile opponents, former Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young, bowed out. The Harvard alum known for his erudite eviscerations from the bench had tried to metamorphose into an angry Trump acolyte, from his Facebook Live announcement in which he yelled about being “the disruptor” to his cringey slogan, “Bow Tie. Bad Ass.”

It was like if William F. Buckley suddenly tried to transform himself into Vanilla Ice. And it didn’t work.

Young follows in the footsteps of Lena Epstein, a Trump surrogate who decided her talents would be best used in an open metro Detroit congressional seat. And of course, U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) and rap/rock star Kid Rock never pulled the trigger, despite considerable hype.

That leaves the GOP field with three candidates: John James, an Iraq war veteran and political newcomer; businessman Sandy Pensler; and historic preservationist Bob Carr.

President Trump’s numbers have tumbled in Michigan. Our Senate election hasn’t even cracked the top 10 races in 2018. And more and more analysts are predicting a national Democratic wave next year.

Stabenow, who’s sitting on a $7 million war chest, probably isn’t shaking in her boots — but she’ll run like someone who’s 20 points behind. That’s just the Stabenow way.

But let’s remember that at the onset of 2017, Republicans were riding high. Trump had just become the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988, pushing him over the top in the Electoral College. And victory was all the sweeter since even many conservatives had resigned themselves to four years of another Democratic president.

So Republicans were feeling buoyant about 2018. They’d already had an impressive run since 2011, controlling the governor’s mansion, attorney general’s office, secretary of state’s domain, state House, state Senate, state Supreme Court and congressional delegation. And most GOP strategists expected the good times to keep on rolling through the next election, especially as Michigan was Trump country now.

They even set their sights on the most powerful Democrat in the state, something that had seemed laughable before Nov. 8, 2016. I’d even written a column in the fall of 2015 with this lead: “Every six years, Michigan Republicans get to play their least-favorite game: Who wants to lose to Debbie Stabenow?”

Consider the electoral history of Michigan’s senior senator. Stabenow won the seat in 2000 by coming from behind to knock out incumbent Spencer Abraham, who Republicans had thought was a lock. Since then, she’s dispatched both her challengers, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, by double digits.

The three-term senator is the once (and perhaps future) Senate Agriculture Chair, as she’s never lost touch with her farm roots in Clare. Nobody outworks her and she’s always a prodigious fundraiser.

But as Republican powerbrokers eagerly awaited President Trump’s inauguration, they tittered that Stabenow’s time was finally up.

Some dejected Democrats worried they were right and confided that if the GOP could oust Stabenow, that would be the death knell for the party in Michigan. The state’s other Democratic senator, freshman Gary Peters, would be toast in 2020 and nobody with a “D” after their name would ever win anything again.

If there’s one thing that Democrats excel at, it’s dreaming up elaborate Chicken Little scenarios.

Republicans began jumping into the ‘18 Senate race with abandon. But everyone was overshadowed by the prospect of Kid Rock teasing a run, with even former White House senior adviser Steve Bannon reportedly wooing him.

The national media nearly collectively lost their mind, spinning cliché-strewn stories and tweets about how the hardscrabble Macomb County kid (who grew up in a sprawling mansion) would capture the hearts of all the hard hats at the Warren bowling alleys and become the Donald Trump of the Senate.

After exploiting everyone’s credulousness and selling out some concerts, Kid Rock went on “The Howard Stern Show” last fall and almost admirably declared, “F--- no, I’m not running for Senate; are you kidding me?”

By then, Epstein had already dropped out of the Senate race to pursue the seat left open by the retirement of U.S. Rep. Dave Trott (R-Birmingham).* But at least she left behind the gift that keeps on giving, a deliciously awkward 55-second YouTube video titled, “Lena Epstein Welcomes Kid Rock 2 the Party,” complete with her flashing a Sarah Palin-style wink.

Upton took a pass on the race before Thanksgiving (thankfully before he had to degrade himself on social media). And now Young has taken his badass bowtie and gone home.

As it stands now, Republicans find themselves in the familiar position of trying to coalesce around a less-than ideal nominee, kicking in some cash and hoping against hope that Stabenow slips up.

They could always get lucky in 2018. But not too many would take those odds.

* Party affiliation corrected.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: The War Over Gerrymandering Has Just Begun

You can’t really pick an issue that’s more inside baseball than gerrymandering. And yet remarkably, this has inspired the most genuine grassroots political effort I’ve seen in Michigan.

Before Christmas, a group called Voters Not Politicians turned in 425,000 signatures for a ballot initiative that would create an independent citizen commission to draw legislative districts in Michigan instead of the Legislature. The group will need 315,654 of those signatures to be valid in order to get the measure on the 2018 ballot.

You’d think most non-political junkies never think twice about gerrymandering, which establishes an advantage for a political party by manipulating district boundaries.

But you’d be wrong.

The playbook for getting questions on the Michigan ballot is well-established. First, raise $1 million. (With Gov. Snyder signing a 2016 law tightening up the timeframe for the signature-gathering process, banking $2 million in advance is helpful). Then you pay people to circulate petitions across the state, an arduous process.

Voters Not Politicians broke the rules. They raised about $130,000 as of August and launched an all-volunteer effort, finding folks lining up to sign petitions from Detroit to Holland and everywhere in between.

Many of the petition circulators had never attended a political rally or a party meeting. But crusading against gerrymandering — which might seem to be the ultimate pie-in-the-sky effort — has attracted people from across the political spectrum who want more of a say in their government.

In other words, Voters Not Politicians has become what the Clean Michigan Government part-time legislature effort launched by Lt. Gov. Brian Calley advertised itself as being: A groundswell of regular people sick of politics and government as usual. That petition drive, in contrast, has been plagued with problems and was turned over to far-right ideologues Tom McMillin and Dave Agema after it served its true purpose, launching Calley’s 2018 gubernatorial bid.

Here’s how the current redistricting process currently works. After each decennial census, the Michigan Legislature is charged with redrawing the boundaries for the state House, state Senate and Congress based on shifts in population. And the governor has to sign the new plan.

So in the case of the state Legislature, you literally have politicians being able to pick their voters. I have watched staffers go block by block to find the “right” mix of voters for their boss’ district (i.e. enough Democrats or Republicans to keep them “safe”). The first rule of redistricting is politicians protect their jobs.

It’s also a partisan process by design. For the last two redistricting cycles in 2001 and 2011, Republicans have controlled everything, as they held the governorship, both chambers of the Legislature and even had a majority on the state Supreme Court, which could be counted on to rule in favor of the GOP’s maps.

Not surprisingly, Republicans have drawn districts that favor GOP majorities in the state Legislature and Congress. It’s paid off handsomely. Consider 2014, a good Republican year in which Snyder was re-elected. Republicans won a 63-47 majority in the state House, a 27-11 majority in the state Senate and maintained their 9-5 majority in the congressional delegation.

But when Inside Michigan Politics examined statewide votes, it wasn’t exactly a red tsunami. Democrats won a majority of the statewide vote for state House races and a plurality of votes for Congress. Republicans won a narrow statewide vote majority for the state Senate.

And yet Republicans ended up with bone-crushing majorities in all three bodies. That was by design.

It’s true that some areas are heavily Republican, like Allegan County, or overwhelmingly Democratic, like Detroit. It’s impossible to draw competitive districts there and it wouldn’t represent voters to do so. However, it would be pretty painless to draw dozens more districts that didn’t favor one party or the other. But right now, there’s little incentive — from either party — to do so.

Voters Not Politicians proposes a process controlled by a 13-member body would be composed of Democrats, Republicans and independents who don’t have a stake in the outcome. After covering redistricting in Iowa, which has a similar framework, I can say that it’s not a perfect process but it’s far superior to what goes on in Michigan and other states.

Not surprisingly, Republicans have been quick to slam the ballot measure as a stalking horse for Democrats, as several board members have given to Dem candidates. Republicans feel they’ve got a good shot at running the show for the 2021 redistricting process, so if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Of course, with Democrats winning a slew of special legislative races and big victories in Virginia and New Jersey this year, that’s not exactly a guaranteed outcome. And there’s a Supreme Court case that could also upend Michigan’s redistricting process.

It wouldn’t be shocking for the GOP-controlled Legislature to try and throw a monkey wrench into anti-gerrymandering efforts. Republicans could pass a proposal of their own that would appear on the ‘18 ballot and muddy the waters, for instance.

This fight is just beginning.  

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: No Room for Pro-Choice Candidates in the GOP

Shortly after Grosse Pointe businessman Sandy Pensler announced he would run for U.S. Senate as a Republican next year, his spokesman had to quickly put out that he had “evolved” on abortion and he’s now pro-life.

Pensler had run for the same office in 1992 as a pro-choice Republican.*

I can’t speak to Pensler’s personal beliefs, which I presume are sincere. But he’s getting attacked from the far-right Faith and Freedom Coalition for his pro-choice past, anyway. And there’s no doubt that the political winds have shifted in his party.

Last year, the Grand Traverse GOP embarrassed itself by excommunicating its most famous and most successful member, former Gov. William Milliken. In addition to endorsing Democrats (expressing independent thought, the horror!), the moderate was specifically lambasted for vetoing pro-life legislation that was “contrary to the core principles of Republicans.”

As recently as the last decade, there were a smattering of pro-choice Republicans in the Michigan Legislature, like former state Sen. Shirley Johnson. But no more.

Take former state Sen. and U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz (R-Battle Creek), a Catholic physician who’s personally pro-life but refused to have every vote dictated to him by Right to Life. In 2006, he lost his Republican congressional primary fight to now-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton), an outspoken pro-life preacher.

After watching what happened to Schwarz and pro-choice Republicans like former U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, ambitious Republicans have learned to toe the pro-life line. I can’t tell you how many GOP officials have told me off the record that they’re pro-choice or don’t really care about abortion, but they keep quiet, because they’d like to keep their jobs.

So it wasn’t surprising to see Mitt Romney declare he was now pro-life when he ran for president the first time in 2008. Now-President Donald Trump had the same conversion.

And now-Gov. Rick Snyder, who had bucked Right to Life by backing the ‘08 embryonic stem-cell constitutional amendment, ran in 2010 as being firmly pro-life. Although Snyder has signed a number of bills clamping down on LGBT and abortion rights, his occasional independent streak has made social conservatives apoplectic.

But that will change if Snyder is succeeded by a Republican in 2019 — whether it’s Attorney General Bill Schuette or his own lieutenant governor, Brian Calley. Bills like the Right to Life license plate will be signed into law within the first month. Count on it.  

Meanwhile, those Republicans who have stuck to their pro-choice politics have found themselves wandering in the political desert. Both Schwarz and Chafee became independents after losing their elections, with the former flirting with running for Congress in 2012 as a Democrat and the latter running for president in 2016 as one.

If there’s currently a pro-choice Republican holding office in Michigan, I’m not aware of it.

There are plenty of pro-life Democratic officials left in Michigan, however, although their numbers are shrinking. Democrats seeking higher office, like governor or U.S. Senate, are now overwhelmingly pro-choice. Former U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) would be the exception if he does jump into the ‘18 gubernatorial race, but he could suffer the same fate of pro-life former Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford), who lost badly in the ‘10 Dem primary.

There’s been a fierce debate within the party over whether to run pro-life candidates in 2018, particularly to win over voters in more conservative areas after Trump’s surprise win.

This was inflamed by Bernie Sanders endorsing a pro-life mayoral candidate Health Mello in Nebraska, but snubbing pro-choice Jon Ossoff in his Georgia congressional race. In the end, neither man won, but Dems are left to grapple with abortion as a litmus test.

You can expect this to play out in some Michigan legislative primaries next year, as Rep. Kristy Pagan (D-Canton) and others are recruiting pro-choice women, even in socially conservative areas up north and on the west side of the state. They now have a big victory under their belt with pro-choice Sara Cambensy winning this month’s special 109th state House election in the U.P.

Don’t expect pro-life Democrats to disappear from the Legislature completely. And it’s worth noting that even when Dems have run the state House — as recently as 2006 to 2010 — there was still an anti-abortion majority.

There’s no doubt that the parties are becoming more polarized on abortion. But the Dems still have a ways to go before they achieve the ideological purity that Republicans have.

*Correction: The column originally misstated Ronna Romney ran for Senate on a pro-choice platform; she did not.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: How a Michigan Special Election Could Shake up the 2018 Narrative

Democrats have racked up an impressive record in special legislative elections across the country this year. They’ve flipped six seats, while Republicans haven’t picked up any.

Most Democratic candidates have vastly improved on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 showing, as well. So in spite of the fact that the party has lost some high-profile special congressional elections in Georgia and Montana, many political handicappers believe the Dems are well-positioned for a good year in 2018.

And yet, an obscure race in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula next month has the power to change that narrative.  

Democrats are palpably nervous about a special House election they should easily win. The 109th has a solid 56.9 percent Democratic base, per Inside Michigan Politics, and has been held by a string of Democrats, most recently by the late Rep. John Kivela (D-Marquette), whose suicide devastated members on both sides of the aisle.

The Democratic nominee is Sara Cambensy, a former Marquette city commissioner who eked out a win in the Aug. 8 special primary. Her history of primarying Kivela in ‘16 has not been particularly helpful with the base. U.P. unions have been out knocking doors and the Michigan Democratic Party has ramped up fundraising for her.

Republicans believe this one could be a sleeper, as I’ve noted. The U.P. has definitely been getting redder. Last year, President Trump triumphed in three of the four counties in the 109th, although he lost Marquette County, the district’s population base.

The GOP state House nominee, Marquette school board President Rich Rossway, is ensconced in the community and notably isn’t stressing his party label (much like Dems in red areas have done for years). In fact, Rossway joined striking UP Health System-Marquette nurses on the picket line this month (along with Cambensy) — something that’s become rarer for Republicans as the party has adopted a stronger anti-union bent.

This is one of the two special state House elections on Nov. 7 (the Dems are fully confident of holding the 1st District that includes Detroit and Wayne County suburbs).

There’s a lot on the line. Losing the 109th would result in a 64-46 GOP majority. That’s a feat Republicans only briefly achieved in 2012 when then-Democratic Rep. Roy Schmidt switched parties right before the filing deadline (he went on to lose his seat).

The Ds would then have to flip 10 seats next year to regain the majority, which would probably give donors pause and cause the state House to tumble down the priority list.

Taking an “L” in the 109th could depress fundraising for Democrats across the board in Michigan, from the governor’s race on down. And it would certainly result in a devastating storyline that Democrats truly are in a freefall in the state.

After all, Democrats haven’t held the governor’s mansion, state House, Michigan Supreme Court or a majority in the congressional delegation since 2010. They haven’t controlled the state Senate since 1984.

In 2016, the Ds were fully expected to pick up state House seats during a presidential year and Clinton was supposed to handily win Michigan. Neither of those things happened.

And so, if the Dems can’t even hold what’s supposed to be a safe state House seat at a time when the party is ascendent nationally, the storyline will be that Michigan is clearly now a red state.

A loss like this has the power to change the national narrative, as well. Expect election forecasters to declare that a Democratic wave in 2018 is now in doubt. Some will predict that Dems will have to settle for a more moderate year — which means dreams of winning back either chamber of Congress is kaput. A more pessimistic read is that states that have been growing more conservative, like Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, will continue that trend next year.

So how competitive is the 109th? Is this all just standard Democratic angst? That’s not clear. No one’s confident about what the electorate will look like in this special election and there’s been no public polling.

And hey, I talked to plenty of Dem leaders in 2008 who were convinced Barack Obama was going to blow the election right up until the very end. He ended up beating John McCain nationally by 7 points and conquering Michigan by an astounding 16 point-margin.

We went through the same dance in 2012, with a prominent Dem official texting me during the first Obama-Mitt Romney debate that all was lost for sure. The incumbent president went on to win re-election by a 4-point margin nationally and took Romney’s native Michigan by almost 10 points.

In 2016, many of the same Dem “Chicken Littles” told us the sky was falling again. Of course, this time, they were right. Trump pulled out a roughly 10,000-vote win over Clinton, helping push him over the top in the Electoral College.

It’s possible that the Ds are being paranoid about the 109th and they’ll pull off a win on Nov. 7. It might not even be particularly close. But given how ‘16 turned out, most Dems are OK with hitting the panic button on this one, especially if it motivates fundraising and the base to turn out.

After all, everyone knows there’s far more on the line than just that particular House seat on the ballot.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Macomb County Hit by Hurricane Karen

The Michigan Legislature has suffered a series of black eyes in the last few years, thanks to its members.

One was expelled: Rep. Cindy Gamrat (R-Plainwell), who was accused of abusing her office. Her partner-in-crime, Rep. Todd Courser (R-Lapeer), resigned before suffering the same fate.

Two have resigned as a result of plea bargains: Rep. Brian Banks (D-Harper Woods), an eight-time felon who was charged with more financial felonies, and Sen. Virgil Smith (D-Detroit), who was convicted of a felony for shooting a semi-automatic weapon at his ex-wife’s car.

Sen. Bert Johnson (D-Highland Park) has been indicted by a grand jury on charges of conspiracy and theft from a federal program. And it looks like the House will have another member who’s a convicted felon after the special election in November, as Harper Woods School Board Member Tenisha Yancey is the Democratic nominee in Banks’ old seat, which is heavily Democratic.

As embarrassing as this is for Michigan, there’s actually a more troubling scandal afoot in Macomb County. That’s because none of these state legislators had the power to inflict the damage that the top official in charge of elections and vital records can in a key Michigan county.

Karen Spranger, a local gadfly best known for donning a tinfoil suit at government meetings to protest smart meters, got swept into the clerk’s office last fall as part of the Donald Trump GOP wave crashing through Macomb.

She replaced retiring Clerk Carmella Sabaugh, who was known for running one of the most innovative and efficient offices in Michigan. All Spranger really had to do was keep key staff in place, sit back and collect her sizeable $108,880 annual salary.

But Spranger had other plans. The Detroit Free Press summarized her tenure well in the lead of its story last month:

“In her first seven months as the Macomb County Clerk/Register of Deeds, Karen Spranger got kicked off her county computer for allowing noncounty workers on it; fired her two top appointed deputies; sued the county over a litany of issues, and was named as a defendant in three other lawsuits, including a whistle-blower complaint in federal court filed by her former top aides.

“She was fined $100 for a county ethics violation; totaled her county car in a crash; filed a criminal complaint about the news media harassing her; was caught on video pushing storage bins to a construction area before an office move she opposed, and is under investigation for allegedly lying on her affidavit to run for office.”

The article also notes that the Freep “wasn’t able to find any evidence that Spranger had held a regular job since graduating from high school.”

A St. Clair County judge is overseeing a case that could result in Spranger’s removal from office. But even if she gets the boot, it could take years for the county to recover from Hurricane Karen.

If Spranger were a state lawmaker, she could make some goofy floor speeches, introduce bills that would go nowhere and cast questionable votes. But she would be one of 110 members in the House or 38 occupants of the Senate. Her constituents could suffer from poor representation, but the overall destruction she could cause to the Legislature as an institution would be limited.

Unfortunately, Spranger is in a position to hobble critical functions in a large Michigan county as clerk.

And it’s the kind of stuff people notice. She’s in charge of a host of records, including birth, divorce, death, deeds, mortgages, liens and business registration. The office handles the filing of new civil, domestic and criminal cases and maintains all of the existing case files for the 16th Circuit Court. And Spranger is also charged with running elections.

Her office appears to be completely dysfunctional, as almost one-third of her “80-plus-member staff was unfilled or on medical leave at one point” in July, according to the Freep. Court e-filings were behind and Spranger missed the deadline to submit her budget.

Macomb County is home to almost 1 million people (including many members of my family). At this point, who has confidence that their vital records are being accurately recorded and safeguarded? Who believes Spranger can oversee a big election next year?

Sure, Macomb is a pretty colorful place, known for rough-and-tumble politics and some corrupt officials. But it’s also home to two highly popular figures, County Executive Mark Hackel, a Democrat, and Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller, a GOP former congresswoman. They’ve had plenty of experience righting the ship in government.

But cleaning up the mess in the clerk’s office could end up being the biggest challenge for the county yet.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Thanedar Tries To Shake Up ‘18

What does $3.2 million of your personal fortune get you in the 2018 gubernatorial race?

In the case of Democrat Shri Thanedar, it’s paid off in some good fundraising stories (sadly, his name had been axed from most headlines by the end of the news day after the shock wore off) and a within-the-margin-of-error polling performance.

Thanedar, who last year sold his company, Avomeen Analytical Services, “for a lot of money” (as he told the Detroit News), has a fascinating story to tell, something he heavy-handedly does on his campaign website: “My story is one of grit and determination, of the highs of success and the lessons of failure, of unwavering optimism in the face of harsh adversity. It is about pursuing the American dream and never giving up.”

Here’s the thumbnail version: Thanedar escaped poverty in India to earn a PhD in polymer chemistry in America. He settled in Missouri and bought a business, which ballooned and then went belly up. Thanedar remade himself in Michigan with a new company and has now decided he wants to be the state’s next CEO.

Meanwhile, frontrunner Gretchen Whitmer, a former state Senate minority leader known for her leadership on women’s issues and establishment support, raised $1.5 million the hard way. And former Detroit Health Department head Abdul El-Sayed, who’s captured the imagination of many Bernie Sanders supporters, posted an impressive $1 million.

Thanedar needs to make up ground quickly, as his name ID is nil. Though it’s unfair, his accent won’t help him tell his story with some voters in Michigan. Moreover, Democrats are wondering what the newcomer stands for, especially on issues he doesn’t touch on his website, like the Second Amendment and abortion rights.

If no one else jumps into the race, most expect Thanedar to play the role of footnote or spoiler, possibly splitting up the non-establishment vote.

In a February column, I noted that there was some hankering for nontraditional outsider gubernatorial candidates in both parties. Michigan Democrats traditionally have a smaller donor base than the GOP, so a self-funder is always attractive (it’s one reason why many were eager for well-known attorney and University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein to get in).

Thanedar, however, isn’t exactly in the mold of other wealthy Dems like Illinois gubernatorial hopeful J.B. Pritzker, a key Barack Obama fundraiser whose family owns the Hyatt hotel chain, or Tom Steyer, a hedge fund manager and climate change warrior who could run for California governor. Thanedar’s fortune isn’t as vast and he’s not ensconced in the party (he gave just $60 to the House Democratic Fund last year and $2,300 to Republican John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign).

The blueprint for a Thanedar victory is obvious: Our current governor, Rick Snyder. There’s no shortage of similarities. Both are Ann Arbor entrepreneurs who never ran for office before their self-funded outsider gubernatorial bids.

At this point, few would be surprised if Thanedar copied Snyder’s signature move, releasing a biographical Super Bowl ad next year (perhaps declaring himself to be the compassionate nerd Michigan needs right now).

In 2010, Snyder kicked in nearly $6 million of his own money to win a five-way GOP primary. That might explain why the buzz around Lansing is that the Thanedar plans to dump close to eight figures into the ‘18 primary alone, which could make some on his campaign team millionaires themselves. The former CEO could also make things interesting if he can tap into the national Indian-American donor base, as former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal skillfully did.

However, the governor was certainly better known around business and political circles when he embarked on his campaign than Thanedar is. Snyder has always had powerful connections with the more moderate corporate wing of the Republican party (which tolerates the social conservative platform in the name of tax breaks). He also served on the Michigan Economic Development Corp. board and supported the ‘08 embryonic stem cell amendment.  

Thanedar, the 2016 EY Entrepreneur of the Year, has tried to make up ground quickly and has met with dozens of reporters, lobbyists and GOP and Democratic strategists across the state. (Full disclosure: He met with my husband, Joe DiSano, who declined to work with him, and talked with me about writing his biography).

Thanedar has also courted the Small Business Association of Michigan (SBAM), which is smart, but this could ultimately end up costing him. President Rob Fowler told MIRS that Thanedar was initially questioning whether to run as a Republican or Democrat, which is not terribly helpful in winning a partisan primary (especially in these polarized times). While Thanedar has denied the conversation, Fowler is a Lansing institution and a straight shooter respected by both sides.

There’s certainly no shortage of fodder for Thanedar’s rivals if he starts edging up in the polls. But right now, that’s still a big “if.”

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: Michigan GOP Could Go All in on Trump in U.S. Senate Race

Unlike most of the political class in Michigan, Lena Epstein boarded the Trump train early. And now she’s hoping to hitch a ride to the U.S. Senate in 2018.

After supporting social conservative Rick Santorum, who fell short in his 2012 presidential bid, Epstein settled on Donald Trump in early 2016 while most Michigan Republicans were flocking to mainstream choices like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz or John Kasich.

Epstein, the general manager for her family’s business, Southfield-based Vesco Oil, has said she was drawn to Trump as a fellow businessperson.

She soon became the Michigan campaign’s co-chair, defending him on everything from the loan his real estate mogul father gave him (she quoted Fred Trump saying, “Everything [Donald] touches seems to turn to gold”) to the “Access Hollywood” tape where the younger Trump bragged about being able to “grab ‘em by the pussy” (Epstein quipped that “he would not be my first choice for my child’s temple Sunday school teacher”).

Epstein explained her surrogacy style to the media thusly: “I never apologized for misstatements he made. I would just pivot to why I supported him: to grow the economy, protect our borders and have increased opportunities for families and children.”

In an October 2016 pro-Trump op-ed for the Jewish News, the 35-year-old laid down her marker: “I’m Jewish. I’m a woman. I’m a millennial.”

Those are all qualities that Epstein has played up as she’s declared for U.S. Senate against three-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing). The hardworking former Senate Agriculture Committee chair is the rare Democrat who knows how to reach voters above M-10.

It’s an interesting gamble. Trump’s poll numbers are tumbling both in Michigan and nationally. But the president still has solid support with Republicans, even amidst the unpopularity of Trumpcare and as his administration has become engulfed in scandal over its ties to Russia.

If this holds, the GOP could face a Catch-22. Perhaps only a Trump loyalist can win the U.S. Senate GOP primary. But that strong pro-Trump stance could cost a Republican nominee in the general election.

Many politicos think Epstein has the GOP nomination in the bag. It’s no secret that Republicans have long believed that the only way to take out Stabenow is with a female candidate. And they’ve also pined for a self-funder, as the incumbent is known for her huge fundraising hauls.

Epstein checks a lot of boxes. She hails from southeast Michigan, the population base of the state, and has a family fortune from which to draw. She has impeccable Trump credentials and a well-known campaign consultant, John Yob, who advised the last two Republicans who ran for U.S. Senate (Pete Hoekstra in 2012 and Terri Lynn Land in ‘14, both of whom lost).

But it’s early. And it’s not a done deal that Epstein will have a clear field. Former state Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) has been on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s radar. Former Michigan Supreme Court Justice Bob Young is still very interested and would have plenty of GOP support. And U.S. Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), who has crossover appeal, hasn’t ruled out a run. In fact, with Democrats making noise about targeting his seat in ‘18, now might be the ideal time for him to take the leap for Senate.

Let’s not forget that many insiders also decided early this year that Gretchen Whitmer had the ‘18 Democratic nomination for governor wrapped up. For a few hours after U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) announced he wouldn’t run, their thesis seemed correct.

But then University of Michigan Regent Mark Bernstein, who also runs the well-known Bernstein law firm, quickly started putting out feelers. That prompted another prominent attorney, 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Geoffrey Fieger, to get in on the action with a spicy “Off the Record” appearance. Now Whitmer is looking for a new campaign spokesperson and it looks like the race could descend into a free-for-all.

There are still 438 days before the Aug. 7, 2018 primary. A lot can change in any race. The only thing we can definitively say at this point is that next year’s election doesn’t look boring.

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here. 

Susan J. Demas: The Income Tax Cut Could Come Roaring Back

The dramatic collapse of the Michigan income tax cut last month really was something to behold.

In their first big policy push of the new term, the House Republican leadership announced what looked like a surefire winner to (gradually) scrap the state’s income tax, a longtime priority of groups like the Mackinac Center for Public Policy and Americans for Prosperity.

Conservative bitterness over the tax rate stems from the 2007 government shutdown when the state was staring down an almost $2 billion deficit. Then-Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), who’s now a congressman, agreed to a deal with Gov. Jennifer Granholm to temporarily up the 3.9-percent income tax rate to 4.35 percent.

The tax rate was supposed to roll back, but it never fully did. That’s because in his first year in office in 2011, Gov. Rick Snyder had bigger plans for the tax code. He wanted to cut business taxes by $2 billion a year. One of the ways he paid for that was to keep the income tax at 4.35 percent for the first year and then freeze it at 4.25 percent thereafter.

That was a hard pill for the Republican right flank to swallow.

So to kick off 2017, new House Speaker Tom Leonard (R-DeWitt) and his team hatched their plan to whittle down the income tax to nothing over the course of 40 years. This had the added benefit of giving the GOP something to run on in 2018, which they know could be a rough Republican year if President Trump’s approval ratings keep dropping.

Their messaging was simple and effective for voters.

“This is the people’s money, not ours,” Leonard declared in a January press release announcing the plan.

But things quickly skidded downhill from there. Snyder let his displeasure over the tax cut be known. Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof (R-West Olive) wasn’t exactly enthusiastic, either.

It soon became clear that a majority in the lower chamber wouldn’t sign off on killing the tax completely, so it was retooled as a partial rollback.

However, that didn’t solve the huge stumbling block of the first-year $1.1 billion sock to the budget, which several Republicans worried would hit education and infrastructure particularly hard. And future tax projections are running so red that they look like they’re ripped out of a horror movie.

Republicans have controlled everything in Michigan state government for the last six years. But as all comic book geeks know, with great power also comes great responsibility. And that means that it’s completely on the GOP to balance the state’s $55 billion budget (unlike the feds, we can’t run a deficit).

Chopping more than $1 billion from the budget would probably mean worse schools and roads (which voters probably wouldn’t understand after being slapped with huge gas tax and fee hikes). So 12 Republican representatives refused to walk the plank, which torpedoed the bill during a late-night session, a rarity this early on in the year.

Leonard took his share of slings and arrows for putting up the bill without having the votes. But it’s doubtful that too many voters will remember that rookie move when 2018 rolls around. (I took a lot of grief from politicos when I wrote that the Todd Courser-Cindy Gamrat sex scandal would have zero impact on the 2016 election. But I turned out to be correct, as nobody cared once Trump barrelled onto the political stage).

Leonard is also doing a juggling act between leading his caucus and looking ahead to next year when he’s term-limited. He’s interested in running for attorney general, which means he has to be nominated at the state GOP convention that’s dominated by conservative activists. Needless to say, the speaker’s hard line on taxes will be wildly popular with them.

And despite this initial setback, I don’t believe the income tax cut is dead this term. Some may be being lulled into a false sense of security.

Don’t forget that Sen. Jack Brandenburg (R-Harrison Twp.) has been working on his own plan. This isn’t a new cause for the Macomb County small businessman, who was a vocal “no” vote in the House during the ‘07 increase. Anyone who knows Brandenburg knows he’s never going to give up.

And consider this scenario. Let’s say that a Democrat is elected governor in 2018, which even many Republicans acknowledge is a decent possibility.

It’s easy to see the GOP-controlled Legislature mustering up enough votes in lame duck to slash the income tax. That way, they can brag to their constituents in the next election that they fought to put more money in their pockets.

And the best part is they can stick the next governor with the bill.

Let the Democrat how to figure out how to pay for their tax cut. If s/he struggles to do so, Republicans can argue it’s clearly a case of liberal economic incompetence (like we got from Granholm for eight years). And if the new governor wants to get rid of the tax cut, s/he’s a typical liberal tax hiker.

Sure, that would all be wildly fiscally irresponsible. But why let good policy get in the way of good politics?

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.

Susan J. Demas: The Battle Up North: A Democrat Flips the Script on Guns in the MI-1

Sleeping Bear Dunes, Susan J. Demas

TRAVERSE CITY –– Can a Democrat still win in the 1st congressional district?

That’s an open question –– and one that’s plagued the party for the last six years. And that’s partly why I made my third trip up north this summer.

This seat, left open by retiring U.S. Rep. Dan Benishek (R-Crystal Falls), represents the Democrats’ best prospect in Michigan this year. In fact, the matchup between former Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lon Johnson and Lt. Gen. Jack Bergman could be a top 10 race nationally.

The Dems’ woes go beyond the fact that a Republican has held the seat encompassing the entire Upper Peninsula and now a good chunk of the northern Lower Peninsula since 2010.

In 2012, President Barack Obama lost the MI-1 by 8 points to Mitt Romney after edging out John McCain by 1.3 points in 2008. And now polling shows Hillary Clinton decisively losing to Donald Trump there, even as she leads statewide.

It’s true that conservative Democrat Bart Stupak represented the district for the 18 years prior to Benishek. But the district is larger and more conservative now than when Stupak was in office.

The MI-1 now spans 32 counties, thanks to the fact that Michigan lost a seat in the last redistricting. Republicans, who completely controlled the 2011 process, lopped on plenty of GOP-friendly territory south of the Mackinac Bridge. Inside Michigan Politics rates the district as now having a 54.4 percent GOP base.

The sprawling northern Michigan fiefdom is home to the Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, which is now teeming with tourists from across the country, thanks to “Good Morning America” naming it the “Most Beautiful Place in America” back in 2011.

The Upper Peninsula also has its fair share of spectacular scenery, including Tahquamenon Falls and the Porcupine Mountains. But its remoteness (it’s an eight-hour drive from Lansing to the Porkies) has made the U.P. insular.

And the district’s natural beauty masks some of its economic pain. Counties in the MI-1 have long been plagued by some of the highest unemployment rates in the state, especially when summer tourists skedaddle. Despite the economic recovery, Mackinac County (home to fabled Mackinac Island) still saw its jobless rate spike above 20 percent in March.

It’s not surprising that Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan is resonating. This is the uncertain backdrop for this critical congressional race.

The MI-1 used to be a haven for socially conservative voters whose views were tempered by economic liberalism, i.e. support for the social safety net (especially Social Security and Medicare) and yes, government pork (it’s tough to make it up there, where the snow can start to fall in September and linger well into May).

Now voters are more willing to roll the dice on candidates who backed big cuts to the welfare state (even Social Security), like Benishek and Romney. And cultural conservatism is ascendent, with anti-abortion billboards and mom-and-pop gun shops dotting the lush countryside.

It’s rough territory for Lon Johnson, who’s pro-choice, pro-LGBT rights and has spent years working in politics and venture capital outside Michigan. He also happens to be married to one of Obama’s chief fundraisers, Julianna Smoot, which symbolizes his political insider status.

In contrast, Bergman is an outsider –– which is how he toppled two long-serving state senators in the GOP primary. He’s also lived outside Michigan, but Republicans are banking on his military service to blunt “carpetbagger” charges.

But Johnson is a frenetic campaigner who’s clearly outworking Bergman. His ability to raise money sets him apart from most Democrats in the region –– and has allowed him to go up on TV early and often.

In the end, the two issues that might save him are the environment and gun rights. It’s safe to say that many downstate Democrats are comfortable with the former, but not the latter.

Johnson has come out swinging against Enbridge’s aging Line 5 pipeline running below the Straits of Mackinac. He’s appealed to northern Michiganders’ pride in their natural surroundings and fear of another drinking water disaster á la Flint. That’s the smart play for voters who are deeply wary of government overreach.

He’s also donning his hunting fatigues in ads, which isn’t for show. Johnson has been sitting in northern Michigan deer blinds since he was a kid and will talk your ear off about his adventures.

Both he and Bergman sport “A” ratings from the National Rifle Association. But some Republicans inadvertently did the Democrat a solid in the rough-and-tumble primary by slamming Bergman for supporting background checks and waiting periods “like Obama.”

There’s been grumbling from Dems (who don’t live anywhere near the MI-1) that Johnson shouldn’t be running to a Republican’s right on guns. It’s the same folks who don’t support pro-life Democrats running in northern and western Michigan, even though that’s what voters demand.

It’s a valid ideological debate. But if Johnson’s pro-gun stance helps the Dems finally take back a key congressional seat, are liberals really going to complain?

Susan J. Demas is Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nationally acclaimed, biweekly political newsletter. Her political columns can be found at SusanJDemas.com. Follow her on Twitter here.